Article in Haaretz: What will the post-Gaza war phase look like? | Policy

Tel Aviv pollster and political analyst Dalia Sheindlin said that there are difficult questions related to how to end the war in Gaza, the meaning behind it, and what will the post-war phase look like for the Gaza Strip?

She went on to ask in an article in the Israeli newspaper “Haaretz” whether the world is serious about resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, noting that many world leaders have repeatedly reiterated their commitment to an eventual political solution to the conflict based on the two-state solution formula.

Broad support for the two-state solution

She added that US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Schulz, the European Union and Arab leaders all expressed their support for the two-state solution.

Sheindlin stated that after years in which the phrases “peace process” and “two-state solution” were nothing more than empty words, they now carry urgent connotations. But what the governments of these international leaders intend to do to advance their declared policy does not seem entirely clear.

Official statements provide a clear picture of the policy vision and, at best, contain hints about specific steps aimed at enhancing the connotations of those statements.

Blinken’s five no’s

The political analyst brought to mind the five no’s – or the so-called “Tokyo Principles” – that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken set out in early November:

• No to the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza
• No to using Gaza as a platform for “terrorism”
• No to the re-occupation or siege of Gaza
• No to cutting off part of Gaza’s territory
• There should be no “terrorist” threat from the West Bank.

According to the Haaretz article, the US Secretary of State “in his intelligence” realized that the long-term vision of a peace settlement must guide immediate policies when the dust of the battles settles.

Blinken had expressed his belief that the time had come to begin talks about the future, “today, not tomorrow, and not after the war, because defining long-term goals, and setting a path to achieve them, will help us formulate an approach to meet immediate needs.”

German confirmation of Blinken’s noes

Scheindlin quoted German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, during her visit to the region last week, as confirming that the Gaza Strip belongs to the Palestinians, its people cannot be expelled, and Israel should not reoccupy the Strip or settle in it. It also raised concerns about “illegal” settlements in the West Bank.

According to the political analyst, it is still unclear what international leaders will do to implement this vision. She believes that the signals issued by the United States may be confusing. Media reports revealed that Israel is putting pressure on the American administration not to mention the two-state solution.

Meanwhile, the United States “secretly” took a step, but it may be historic, to ban the issuance of visas to “violent” West Bank settlers to prevent them from entering its territory.

It seems that Europe will follow America’s example. European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell explicitly announced in December that the bloc would “work to impose sanctions on extremist settlers in the West Bank.”

Conviction of the necessity of serious political transformation

Scheindlin said that diplomats seem convinced of the necessity of a serious political transformation in the region, and they also realize that the issue is controversial globally, and not just within Europe.

To this end, Western policymakers seem to agree that the Arab world must be involved in any future political process.

She explained that she was not sure that talk about making a real political decision about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict might be more serious this time.

But she added, perhaps all the leaders of those countries are working feverishly behind the scenes to come up with a “well-formed” strategy that leads towards peace.

She added that the region seemed so helpless that it was begging strangers to extend a helping hand to it, before asking: Are the Israelis and Palestinians really unable to do anything to save themselves? Her response was positive.