Political analysts agreed that the options before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after US President Joe Biden’s initiative regarding Gaza, are very limited, but they revealed alternatives that the Likud leader may resort to to maneuver and escape forward.
During his speech on the program “Gaza… What’s next?”, the researcher specializing in Israeli affairs, Adel Shadid, confirmed that Netanyahu has not gone through a crisis in his history like the current one, pointing out that Biden’s announcement put Netanyahu in front of difficult choices, as he has no way out and does not have a large margin for rejection. .
Shadid explains that Netanyahu has two options: the first is to enter into a confrontation with the Likud Party and the extremist ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich and the collapse of the government, and the second is to enter into a confrontation with the American administration, the War Council, and a wide segment of Israeli society.
Regarding the alternatives that he may resort to, the expert on Israeli affairs explains that Netanyahu is betting on escalation by escaping towards creating a crisis somewhere or entering into negotiations on the deal and blowing it up later, such as adding some conditions such as the return of settlers to the Gaza envelope, or the identity of the authority that will rule Gaza after the war.
In a related context, political and strategic affairs researcher Saeed Ziad pointed out that Netanyahu has two options: either a clash with Washington, the exit of war council members Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, and pressure from the Israeli street, or going for the deal, losing Ben Gvir and Smotrich, and the collapse of his government.
He noted that Netanyahu may evade by saying that he is ready to go to negotiations and conclude a deal while adhering to achieving the goals of the war, at a time when he ruled out that the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) would agree to any formula that does not include a permanent ceasefire, the complete return of the displaced, an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and a formula What about lifting the siege and reconstruction?
American transformation
Shadid acknowledged that there has been a radical shift in the American position, but he does not rise to pressure Netanyahu because Biden knows the nature of the Israeli government, and he has no interest in its collapse because then the deal to return the prisoners detained in Gaza will be postponed.
Netanyahu’s problems are not limited to the far-right base that rejects the ceasefire – according to Shadid – who said that the formation of an investigation committee into the attack of last October 7 poses a serious threat to the current prime minister, in addition to the issue of Haredi recruitment.
He added that there have been developments that may lead to increased pressure on Netanyahu and all government components, such as hundreds of large economic companies demanding that the government deal positively with the Biden initiative, and raising two petitions demanding withdrawal from Gaza or refusal to return to fighting there.
In turn, Ziad believes that the United States is interested in a state of calm in the region, before the next elections in the country, and is seeking to enter into them through an agreement with Saudi Arabia that is presented as a card to voters.
He stated that the Biden administration did not imagine that Hamas would play so cleverly, noting that the movement’s behavior surprised the US administration with its repeated positive response, as if it was seeking to defuse sensitivity and present itself as not the obstructing party.
He explains that America believes that the military solution in Gaza has failed, as well as the Israeli street, in addition to former reserve generals in the Israeli army, with the exception of Netanyahu and his extremist government.
Ziad expected that the next round of negotiations on stopping the war and exchanging prisoners would be the most difficult, suggesting a heated clash in light of the presence of many details that might sabotage the deal.
“Hamas remains in Gaza”
For his part, Executive Vice President of the Center for International Policy, Matthew Doss, confirms that Biden and Hamas want to end the war, unlike Netanyahu, indicating that the way the US President announced the proposal aims to put pressure on Netanyahu and his partners on the extreme right.
But Matthew Doss added, “It is not known what Biden will do if Israel refuses,” adding, “Biden must explain publicly or secretly that there will be consequences for Israel if it does not accept the deal, such as stopping arming.”
He pointed out that Biden’s proposal does not answer questions about who will rule Gaza after the war, but the White House stressed that Hamas will no longer be able to launch similar attacks like the October 7 attack.
He concluded that “Hamas will continue its presence in Gaza and will have a say in who rules Gaza even if it does not rule the Strip,” stressing that this is the reality and it is difficult for Netanyahu and his allies.