Tel Aviv Tribune Net correspondents
Occupied Jerusalem- While international media reported that Israel was ready for a ceasefire for a period of up to two weeks in exchange for the release of many Israeli detainees, military and political analysts unanimously estimated that the developments and course of the war on Gaza were hostage to the political considerations of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
This comes as the Israeli security establishment, under pressure from the administration of US President Joe Biden, is preparing to develop an operational plan to change the nature of the fighting in Gaza, and define new features of the form of the war to avoid a clash with Washington, which insists on its supportive position for Israel, but demands a reduction in the intensity of the fighting and a reduction in raids. Intensive, heading for a truce and a new exchange deal.
Amid the military complications related to the third phase of the ground incursion towards Rafah, and the differing positions regarding the Israeli emergency government due to political considerations regarding the course and form of the war and the ground incursion, the families of Israeli detainees held by the Palestinian resistance escalated their protest steps, and demanded that the Netanyahu government put forward an initiative to liberate them.
Third phase plan
Under the title, “The security establishment is preparing to change the nature of the fighting in Gaza within about a month, but Netanyahu may have other plans…”, the military analyst for the newspaper “Haaretz,” Amos Harel, wrote an article in which he reviewed the features of the Israeli army’s plan to change the nature of the fighting in Gaza, In accordance with the recommendations of the US administration.
Harel said that a plan has begun to take shape regarding the form of the war on Gaza at the political level and in the Israeli security establishment. He says, “It is expected to move to the third phase during the next month, after the air phase and the maneuver phase.”
The military analyst conveys that, according to the United States’ recommendation, the change in the method of fighting must include moving to establishing a buffer zone on the borders of the Gaza Strip, and perhaps also between the north of the Strip and the south, and withdrawing part of the incursive reserve forces that maintain slow and dangerous ground maneuvers, and the fighting will turn In the form of specific and specific attacks and operations.
Harel pointed out that the discussion in Israel regarding this plan revolves mainly around the issue of the best timing to work on changing the form of fighting and war, and positions vary regarding the date for this in the middle of next January or at the end of it.
But he says, “There is one major obstacle to the transitional process in terms of the nature and features of the fighting and war, which is the political situation of Netanyahu, who fears the collapse of his government coalition under pressure from right-wing parties. His main concern – apparently – is to remain in power, and therefore he may choose to engage in an artificial conflict.” With the Americans.”
Biden demands
In a reading of the American position regarding the conduct and developments of the war on Gaza, political analyst Alon Pinks wrote an article in “Haaretz”, reviewing what he described as “Biden’s pressure game,” saying that “the American president supports Israel without reservation, and at the same time pushes it to reduce The intensity of the conflict.
Pinks reviewed a question directed to President Biden a few days ago in a private, limited event for supporters and donors to his election campaign, “Are you aware of the fact that Netanyahu is trying to turn the tables and blame you, and is working on a conflict with you and the United States for his political considerations?” Biden smiled and replied firmly, “I know.”
The political analyst says, “There are other things that raise suspicions between Biden and his political and security entourage about Netanyahu, which is that he is trying to drag the United States into a confrontation with Iran, by turning the Houthis in Yemen into evidence that this is not a war against Hamas alone, but rather a conflict between civilizations that he avoids.” Biden, who is aware of Netanyahu’s intentions aimed at fueling a regional conflict in the Middle East.”
Binks explained that the US President – for emotional and political reasons – is not interested in a public confrontation with Israel, so the analyst doubts the possibility of Biden in the coming weeks putting pressure on the Netanyahu government, or setting an ultimatum to stop the war.
Because of these considerations, the political analyst rules out the possibility that Biden will set strict demands in order to force Israel to make a change in the nature of the war and the form of fighting in Gaza, noting that the goal that Washington is focusing on is to bring about a rapid shift from a violent war to a less intense war, and not to stop it. The war is final.
Disagreement escalates
Regarding the impact of the balance of political power and the parties’ positions on the course, developments and nature of the war on Gaza, Haaretz political and partisan affairs editor Ravit Hecht wrote an article summarizing that “the ministers are certain that the majority of the public supports the war, but they will soon face disappointment with its results.”
Hecht explained that the anger and shock that has accompanied the Israeli public since last October 7 is not enough to maintain popular support for a long and bloody battle. In reference to signs of a rift in popular support for the war, amid the refusal of the government coalition parties to change the nature of the fighting, and their insistence on continuing the war until the overthrow of Hamas’ rule.
The political and partisan affairs editor pointed out that “the war government is trying to broadcast messages as if it is moving forward with the fighting, against the backdrop of the continuing blood price that the war imposes on the Israeli army, as well as the intensification of the dispute between the kidnappers’ camp and the Hamas extermination camp in Israeli society,” as she described it.
She pointed out that the claims of the “kidnappers’ camp” boil down to placing the detainees’ file as the first target of the war, and working to liberate them within a comprehensive exchange deal, as this camp and its demands gain momentum in Israeli society at the expense of the counterproposal calling for the continuation of the war and military operations until the overthrow of Hamas’ rule, “and this The proposal is declining after it has been proven that undermining Hamas takes a long time,” Hecht says.