Occupied Jerusalem- While the Israeli far-right government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu seemed solid and strong when it was formed about a year ago, the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle dispelled this fact. The continuation of the war on Gaza contributed to undermining this government while it was disintegrating, and this was compounded by the announcement of US President Joe Biden’s plan to stop the fighting and return Israeli detainees.
Israeli analysts unanimously estimated that Biden’s plan, which he presented last Friday, places Israel at a crossroads with everything related to the exchange deal, the course of the war, and the day after it. Analysts’ readings agreed that Netanyahu, who is required to make decisive decisions, has reached a dead end that may lead to the dismantling of the far-right government.
In a reading of the movement witnessed by the government coalition and the political and party scene in Israel following the unveiling of the Biden plan, estimates have been strengthened that the far-right government is cracking from within due to other issues, most notably the law on recruiting ultra-Orthodox Haredim.
Crossroads
Haaretz newspaper editor, Aluf Ben, believes that Netanyahu is moving towards the solution that has always benefited him, which is dissolving the Knesset and heading to early elections, noting that he is close to “pulling out his ripping tool” to contain political crises, by which he means dismantling the government.
This trend emerged especially after Judge Noam Solberg, who is considered a right-wing figure in the Supreme Court, decided that the Haredim should be recruited, which put the far-right coalition at a crossroads.
The editor pointed out that dissolving the Knesset is the only card remaining for Netanyahu to achieve two urgent goals:
- Completing a deal to return the detainees, even if the price is a ceasefire with Hamas.
- Freezing the Israeli Supreme Court’s ruling obligating the government to recruit “Haredim” so that this file is transferred to the future coalition.
Netanyahu has another gain in early elections related to the dispute in the right-wing camp regarding the ceasefire, and the increasing threats from the coalition partners regarding the dismantling of the government, as he believes that by dissolving the Knesset, both the head of “religious Zionism” Bezalel Smotrich and the head of “Jewish Greatness” Itamar Ben Gvir will not be able to participate. Overthrowing the transitional government that will approve the Biden-Netanyahu agreement with Hamas.
In contrast, and speaking to Aluf Ben, Netanyahu believes that both Ministers Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot will find it difficult to escape from the transitional government if it accepts the American offer guaranteeing the return of the detainees.
Sinwar steps
The same proposal was adopted by Nadav Eyal, a political analyst on the website of Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, who believes that the future of the current Netanyahu government depends on the positions and steps that the head of the Hamas movement in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, will take, whether by accepting the deal or continuing the fighting.
Eyal believes that any decision or step taken by Sinwar will increase the complexity of the political scene in Israel, which may push towards new elections, despite the impression that the far-right government is solid and indissoluble.
The political analyst pointed out that Sinwar is able at any moment to rush towards reaching an agreement, unlike Netanyahu, who does not have such ability. He suggested that the Hamas leader in Gaza does not want an agreement at this stage, and that he is focusing most of his attention on defeating the Israeli army, exhausting it, and trapping it for months. In the Rafah swamp, and causing the Israeli government to be undermined from within.
Escape forward
For his part, Israeli writer Aviv Bushinsky, who previously served as Netanyahu’s political advisor, believes that Biden’s plan has placed all Israeli parties – both coalition and opposition – facing challenges regarding stopping the war on Gaza and the day after that.
In an analytical article published on the Israeli Channel 12 website, the Israeli writer reviewed the political reality and the tensions of the partisan scene, the debate within the government coalition following the unveiling of Biden’s plan, and Netanyahu’s approach of escaping forward during the months of war, in order to refrain from paying the price for the return of Israeli detainees.
Bushinsky stressed that “every rational person knew from day one that victory in the war on the one hand and the return of detainees on the other were two contradictory lines that would end up colliding with each other,” indicating that there were those who exaggerated in promoting that only military pressure would lead to The detainees returned, but nothing was achieved.
“We have reached the moment of truth in which we need to stop frightening the Israeli public,” he said, citing that Gantz and Netanyahu maintain ambiguity, “but until when?” Bushinsky asks, and answers, “Maybe until the next elections, or perhaps until Sinwar and the Polling Institute in Rafah determine for us the expected results of the Israeli elections.”
Netanyahu’s bet
For his part, the political analyst in the Maariv newspaper, Ben Caspit, said that Israel stands at a “crossroads and a fateful and pivotal station, which goes beyond a cessation of fighting and an exchange deal.”
The analyst explained that Israeli society must choose between forming a rational and courageous Zionist government, or a government of nationalists and people obsessed with arson, in addition to fortifying the “enlightened liberal Jewish democracy” against a separate and dark government that adheres to the teachings of the Torah.
Regarding the future of the government coalition and his dealings with Biden’s plan, Caspit says that Netanyahu is convinced that he can deceive all the people all the time, as he relies on opinion polls and his popularity among Israelis, “but he must make a real and decisive decision regarding the return of the kidnapped people and stopping the fighting, without any evasion or procrastination.” “.
He pointed out that Netanyahu is trying to give any possible deal legitimacy to his government coalition and right-wing circles, and to persuade them to accept the first phase of the agreement to ensure the return of 33 Israeli detainees, noting that the future of the government depends on the return of the detainees.
The political analyst believes that Netanyahu is ready to dissolve the Knesset and dismantle his government against the backdrop of the exchange deal, to win the strategic alliance with the Arab countries and normalization with Saudi Arabia, instead of drowning in the crisis of recruiting the extremist Haredim, who are considered a strategic ally of Netanyahu in his various governments, as he is betting on the continuation of this alliance. When the coalition is formed again in the future.
