Experts and researchers agreed that the consensus of the leaders of the Israeli security services that the war in the Gaza Strip has reached a dead end, with the priority of recovering the detained prisoners, increases the pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and strengthens the position of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas).
In this context, academic and expert on Israeli affairs, Dr. Muhannad Mustafa, says that the leak of the meeting carries several messages, the most important of which is that the war on the Gaza Strip has exhausted its tools to achieve its goals, and military operations are no longer useful, with the priority being the return of prisoners through a deal.
Among the messages also – according to Mustafa – is that the process of invading Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip “is not militarily or strategically necessary, and does not affect the achievement of the war’s objectives. Rather, it is a political process to keep Netanyahu in power and for the extreme right to achieve its political objectives from the war.”
He explains that the security and military establishment in Israel enjoys greater confidence within society than the Netanyahu government, and the messages of its meeting contradict all the messages that Netanyahu is promoting, such as the importance of winning the war and invading Rafah.
He points out that in the history of Israel’s wars there was a consensus on the concept of victory or defeat, but the current situation indicates an unprecedented sharp division. “The true victory in the war is by recovering the prisoners and not the victory over Hamas, according to Israeli experts and thinkers.”
He stressed that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant represents the position of the security and military establishment, which believes that going for an exchange deal achieves one of the goals of the war, referring to the right-wing ministers’ attack on Gallant because he supports concluding an exchange deal, at a time when Netanyahu does not offer this institution any political horizon.
He pointed out that there is a conviction among a large group of Israelis that Netanyahu is continuing the war not to achieve Israel’s national goals, but rather to achieve his political goals and the goals of the right, warning of “a major social revolution in Israel if Netanyahu refuses to submit to the demands of the street, the families of the prisoners, and the security and military establishment to go to an exchange deal.” .
“Sanwar does not give gifts”
In turn, researcher in political and strategic affairs, Saeed Ziad, says that the head of the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Al-Sinwar, wants a deal that will lead to the end of the war, “but Netanyahu wants an interest-free loan, as if he wants charity, and Al-Sinwar does not give gifts and charity, but rather puts pressure to take away the rights of the Palestinians.”
According to Ziad, the prisoners’ card is the password in this war, and that Hamas has succeeded in playing on its nerves inside Israel, despite the cohesion that its society demonstrated for a long time before it was severely divided.
He explained that the occupation waived two basic conditions, which are withdrawal from Gaza and the return of the displaced to the northern Gaza Strip, adding that Sinwar is relying on a regional reality in its favor in light of the escalation of operations by Lebanese Hezbollah and the Houthis, as well as the US administration’s pressure on Netanyahu.
He pointed out that Hamas realizes that it is engaging in a process of blackmailing Netanyahu by losing his playing cards after the latter’s failure in his military campaign, and “he is facing a crossroads not only related to his political life but also to Israel.”
According to Ziad, Israel remains to achieve the goal of saving face by recovering a portion of the prisoners alive, otherwise it will have failed in achieving its war goals, which are: eliminating Hamas, destroying its military capabilities, overthrowing its rule, preventing the return of the displaced, and others.
The speaker himself does not hide that Netanyahu is facing internal, regional and international pressure factors, and Rafah has become more of a pressure card for him than resistance because the invasion of Rafah means the acceleration of international cases against him, stressing that he is trying to maneuver in vain.
A formula that satisfies both sides
For his part, Dr. Hassan Mneimneh, a researcher at the Middle East Institute in Washington, believes that the leaks of the security meeting bring positions consistent with Washington, as there is no disagreement between the Biden administration and the Netanyahu government over the goals of the war, but a “partial” disagreement over the arrangement of priorities and achieving achievement.
Mneimneh believes that the American priority is to recover the prisoners. “The goal is not to end the war,” adding that Washington is talking about a temporary ceasefire and other means to eliminate Hamas.
He explains that the leak suggests that there is a dispute in Israel between the security and military establishment on the one hand and the political decision on the other hand, before pointing out that Washington is seeking a deal that satisfies Tel Aviv and Hamas, “which is almost impossible as it is trying to convince Hamas in a certain way that there is a horizon for ending the war.” “.
According to the political researcher, any deal that includes a complete ceasefire “means Israeli defeat, while any deal that does not stipulate this means surrender on the part of Hamas, which will commit to handing over the prisoners and then Israel will resume the war against it.”
