Oman- Concerns are growing in Jordan about the repercussions of the Israeli “summer camps” operation in the West Bank on Jordanian national security, as analysts believe that its dangers are not limited to Palestinian internal security only, but extend to include direct effects on the Kingdom, due to the relationship that links Jordan and Palestine and what intersects with the occupation’s ambitions and its quest to resolve the conflict at the expense of the two countries.
With the start of the Israeli military operation in the northern West Bank, Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz called for the West Bank to be evacuated of Palestinians. He said in statements published on his account on the “X” platform that the threat in the West Bank should be dealt with like Gaza, and called for the evacuation of the residents, saying, “This is a war on everything.”
At the same time, the correspondent of the Hebrew Channel “Kan” in the West Bank, Carmel Danfor, commented that there is a possibility of implementing an organized evacuation of the residents of the areas targeted by the operation, especially the Nour Shams camp.
These statements and analyses point to possible plans to empty some Palestinian camps in the West Bank, which raises concerns in Jordan, especially since the history of forced displacement of Palestinians forms part of the political and national memory of the country, which has received large numbers of Palestinian refugees, and it also warns of an existential threat in light of old and renewed Israeli ambitions targeting Jordan.
Zionist settlement project
Jerusalem affairs researcher Ziad Abhais says that there is an issue missing from the discussion, which is that the occupation views Jordan differently than it views the rest of the Arab countries. It views Syria, Egypt and Iraq – for example – with an eye of division, sabotage and destruction wherever it can, but it views Jordan with an eye of substitution, which is the same eye with which it views occupied Palestine, the West Bank and Gaza.
Abhais added to Tel Aviv Tribune Net that the Israeli occupation is looking forward to extending its colonial occupation of Jordan, “and this is no secret, and it is an essential part of the slogan of the revisionist Zionist organizations, of which the Likud Party is today an extension.” He added that the slogan of the “Likud Youth” still includes the map of Jordan and Palestine as “historical Israel” to this day.
Abhais considers today’s attack on the West Bank to be a “decisive challenge,” explaining that this will be followed by looking at Jordan through the eyes of occupation and subjugation, “and therefore it must be realized that the resistance in Tulkarm and Jenin today is defending Jerash, Ajloun, and Karak, just as it is defending Nablus and Hebron, and unfortunately this view is far from the eyes of the official political elite.”
He explains that the problem does not lie in the fact that there will be a “population surplus that will attack Jordan and dissolve its identity,” as is being presented. Rather, the real problem is that if the decisive project in the West Bank succeeds, it will not stop, and it will force Jordan to answer the question of how it will defend itself after that, while it has peace and normalization agreements and depends on the Israeli side to provide gas and water, and has almost depended on it for electricity.
Explaining what he described as the “decisive project,” Abhais points out that it is important to know that it is a single project in the Zionist mind, and that it means ending the conflict over Palestine in favor of Zionism, a decisive end that cannot be changed, and ensuring that no one will come to try to change it, “and since they are aware that this will not happen except through genocide and displacement, they are going for it, internalizing that they are wrong.”
“The Zionist mind realizes that as long as there are people in the West Bank and Gaza, there will be resistance, and if we want to get rid of them forever, we must displace the people,” he added. “The front and forefront of this decision is controlling the Al-Aqsa Mosque and turning it into a temple, because that means the ability to decide the matter in the holy place, and it is the most difficult point, and if it is decided, it will facilitate everything that comes after it in terms of displacement in Gaza and the West Bank, until the occupation of Jordan becomes a matter of time.”
Regarding the reason for the occupation’s move towards a decisive outcome, the researcher says that the battles related to Al-Aqsa, Gaza and the West Bank are cohesive and prevent a decisive outcome, and confirm the continuity of the confrontation with the occupation, which is what drives the latter to fear that the conflict will be transferred to future generations, which reduces the chances of its survival, so it turns to the method of displacement in the West Bank, Gaza and the camps, or changing the identity of Al-Aqsa Mosque.
Threat of alternative homeland
To clarify the impact of what is happening in the West Bank on Jordan, retired Jordanian army colonel Dr. Mohammed Al-Muqabala told Tel Aviv Tribune Net that there is an organic, geographical, historical and demographic connection between the West Bank and Jordan, explaining that there are fears of the occupation’s pressure to displace the Palestinian population, which could lead in time to a population explosion towards Jordan, thus realizing the danger of an alternative homeland for the Palestinians and a Jewish state.”
He added that if this happens, there will be a state of internal Jordanian conflict, which will in turn lead to the weakening of both Jordan and Palestine, which the occupation will exploit to push towards implementing the second stage of the Zionist project, which is “considering Jordan as part of the land of Israel,” in a practical interpretation of the map of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, which placed Jordan within the map of “Greater Israel.”
Regarding the impact of the continued escalation in the West Bank, Colonel Al-Muqabala points out that this will increase the national and religious feelings of Jordanians, as it cannot be guaranteed that they will remain silent, which may lead to a military escalation in terms of increasing the mobilization of military forces and imposing a state of emergency, which will constitute a threat to Israel that will push it to pressure Jordan under the pretext of adhering to the peace agreement, which it does not adhere to in return.
For her part, political science professor Arej Jabr told Tel Aviv Tribune Net that Jordan has become aware of the contexts that seek to liquidate the Palestinian cause planned at Jordan’s expense, especially with the current operation and the repeated incursions into the camps and towns of the West Bank, and the Israeli statements and what they carry of incitement towards a forced evacuation of the West Bank with the movement’s destination being determined towards Jordan, to establish the reality that Jordan is an alternative homeland.
What reinforces the fears, according to Jabr, is the announcement of the intention to form an Israeli military division in the border areas, in addition to the statements of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the United Nations General Assembly at the end of September 2023, during which he raised a map of Israeli ambition and the proposed expansionist project under implementation.
Jabr pointed out that since the first moments of the aggression on Gaza in October 2023, statements began to pour in from the Israeli military and political levels calling for the necessity of a solution based on a double displacement process, south from Gaza towards Egypt and another from the West Bank towards Jordan.
The political science professor said that what is important now is to pay attention to previous and subsequent calls that are consistent with the broad outlines of what is known as the “Deal of the Century,” considering that Jordan is an alternative homeland and must absorb and settle all spectrums and waves of incoming refugees. This is what Jordan responded to explicitly with the three no’s, including “no to considering Jordan an alternative homeland.”
