Occupied Jerusalem- Military and political analysts have unanimously estimated that the Israeli army has failed to achieve the declared goals of the war on Gaza, and that the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is finding it difficult to decide on the conduct of the ground operation and the mechanisms for liberating detainees held by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas).
These estimates come at a time when the circle of protests is expanding by the families of detainees in Tel Aviv and demanding a comprehensive exchange deal, amid talk about Hamas and Israel agreeing to a path of negotiations for a new exchange deal.
Hamas requires an immediate ceasefire, while Netanyahu adheres to the military option to free the Israeli detainees.
The military option failed
The Israeli side’s readings come with the strengthening of convictions that the military option did not lead to the liberation of – even – a single detainee, and did not contribute to undermining Hamas’ rule or its military arsenal, but rather inflicted heavy losses on the occupation army in terms of dead and wounded soldiers, and in military equipment.
In light of the complexities of the war and the ground incursion, television critic and journalist Einav Schiff wrote an article in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, entitled “It is time to come down from the tree,” in an implicit admission that the army did not achieve the goals of the war, and that Netanyahu’s government is floundering about resolving the issue of detainees.
The journalist explained that the killing of the three kidnappers at the hands of the Israeli army not only revealed serious operational failures and a lack of moral clarity, but also revealed the painful and restrictive reality of the ground maneuver in the Gaza Strip.
Practically speaking, Einav says, “One does not need to be a high-ranking army officer to see the gap in facts, field realities, and high expectations implanted in the mentality of the Israeli public.”
He continues, “The media discourse on television, the Internet, and newspapers, with the exception of a small number of voices, hides the difficult facts on the battlefield, under the pretext of maintaining morale and fighting spirit.”
In practice, Einav believes that the political and military levels in Israel find it difficult to get the truth out of their throats. He said, “Eliminating Hamas, perhaps this is a good slogan, but it is not a realistic goal under the current circumstances.” After a month and a half of violent fighting, no one in Israel dared. According to him, the army does not have complete control over the northern Gaza Strip.”
Just wishes
Every day, the Israeli journalist added, “soldiers die in ground battles there that take place in complex and difficult circumstances, despite the great assistance provided by the air force and artillery.”
He explained that the Israeli army’s estimates regarding the date on which full control over areas such as Jabalia and the Shuja’iya neighborhood can be declared are merely wishful thinking at best, while in the south of the Gaza Strip, according to Israeli reports, the situation is more complex, as the fate of the Rafah maneuver has become questionable in light of the situation. The American expectation of changing the formula of fighting.
Einav continues, “The current phase of the campaign will not end with the destruction of Hamas, which is the Israeli declared goal and is not achievable in the foreseeable time frame. And this is even before the issue of the kidnappers, which is not moving in any positive direction. Since the resumption of fighting, none of them have returned to Israel alive.” .
The same reading was addressed by the Israeli writer, Nir Kipnis, in his article on the Walla website entitled: “Release the kidnappers or destroy Hamas? The Israeli government is unable to make a decision.”
Kipnis considered that the sequence of events in Israel since the “Al-Aqsa Flood” on October 7th, and the course of the war on Gaza, prove that the Israeli leadership is incapable of making difficult decisions.
He said that the inability to decide on the conduct of the war and a new exchange deal reflects the different opinions of the Israeli government in two main camps, the first of which promotes that military pressure serves the negotiations, and therefore the more it increases, the more it is an incentive for the deal.
On the other hand, the second camp claims that the return of the kidnapped people precedes the overthrow of Hamas’ rule, and thus with the divergence of positions between the two camps, Kipnis says, “Even if necessary, we will have to swallow our national pride and go to a deal that makes the Shalit deal look like a marginal humanitarian gesture.” Only then will a war of annihilation be declared against Hamas.”
Doubts and confusion
Amid this discrepancy and division over the conduct of the ground incursion and the pursuit of the war’s goals, Netanyahu asserts that he is committed to continuing the fighting. However, military affairs analyst for the Haaretz newspaper, Amos Harel, says, “Doubts have begun to erode and crack Israeli popular support for the war.”
Over time, the military analyst adds, “The situation in Gaza may resemble the subsequent phase of the First Lebanon War in 1982, after the occupation of Beirut, where the Israeli understanding that victory seemed possible faded, and here in the ground incursion into Gaza, matters are also linked to a change in the general Israeli position towards the war.”
Harel said, “The continuation of the fighting in its current form will include more soldiers being killed and wounded, as the possible change in the form of the ground operation, next month, will raise doubts about achieving the declared goals, enslaving the defeat of Hamas or assassinating its senior officials, and not liberating the detainees through a military operation.”
In a reading of the Israeli political leadership’s failure to take decisive decisions regarding the conduct of the war on Gaza, Zvi Barel, an analyst for Arab and Middle Eastern affairs in Haaretz newspaper, believes that this reflects the deception of the Netanyahu government, suggesting that Tel Aviv in the new phase of the war is moving towards “a direct and complete occupation of the Strip.” “.
Without declaring this, Barel says, “It seems that the Israeli strategy may tend to imitate the occupation model, as Tel Aviv declares that it does not intend to occupy Gaza, but it does not plan to withdraw from it either, and without specifying what are the necessary conditions that will allow the withdrawal of army forces from the Gaza Strip, And when will that happen?”
There seems to be something in the slogan “Eliminate Hamas,” says Bar’el, “that meets the necessary condition for ending the war, but the Gaza Strip is still full of weapons, and the cross-border tunnels between Sinai and Gaza still play a role in the flow of weapons and ammunition.”
The same spokesman continues, “The continuation of the fighting will extend for a long period of time until Israel is able to announce that Hamas’s military infrastructure no longer poses a threat either.”