Occupied Jerusalem- Readings by Israeli analysts unanimously agreed that US President Joe Biden’s plan to stop the war on Gaza and return the detainees has caused confusion in the political and partisan scene in Tel Aviv, amid doubts about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s intentions regarding the exchange deal and the day after the war.
The readings agreed among themselves that Biden’s plan indicates that Netanyahu has reached a dead end in everything related to the perception of the course of the war and its objectives, and the future of the Gaza Strip. Some analyzes estimated that Israel, despite the strength of the far-right government coalition headed by Netanyahu, is moving more towards dissolving the Knesset and holding early elections.
Analysts unanimously estimated that Netanyahu would work to reject Biden’s plan in order to continue the war on Gaza, as the readings agreed that the plan was directed to all Israeli political parties, and placed them before the question of the next day and the future of Gaza, where analysts’ opinions were unanimous that without a clear Israeli answer to that, the launch would not take place. Release detainees.
Difficult decision
Under the title “All or Nothing… Netanyahu’s dilemma is the most difficult in his history,” political analyst Ben Caspit wrote an article in the newspaper “Maariv,” in which he reviewed Biden’s messages to the government and political parties in Israel, by revealing the plan to stop the fighting.
Ben Caspit believes that the Prime Minister must choose between the major historical geopolitical deal that will enable Israel to be part of a regional alliance to fortify it against any existential threat, or continue to flounder in the fighting between Gaza and Rafah, or continue to bet and follow the agenda of the far-right parties.
The political analyst estimated that Netanyahu is in a dilemma that is considered the most difficult in his political career, as there is no room for evasion, procrastination, or hesitation in the face of Washington. Netanyahu, who does not want to lose the far-right government, must decide, but he is not accustomed to making fateful decisions, and he will continue to maneuver even if This led to all Israelis losing the state.
Ben Caspit explained that Biden’s timing to reveal the details of the plan to stop the fighting was not a coincidence, but rather was on the mark, and came before the possibility of the withdrawal of the head of the “National Camp”, Benny Gantz, and Minister Gadi Eisenkot, from the emergency government, and in light of the escalation of threats from the head of the “Jewish Greatness” party. Itamar Ben Gvir and the head of Religious Zionism, Bezalel Smotrich, to withdraw from the government if an exchange deal is concluded.
Impasse
Israeli journalist Nechama Doak believes that Biden’s plan reflects the dilemma in which Netanyahu is located, who – in her estimation – has entered a dead end in everything related to the strength and stability of his government coalition, and how to deal with the course of the war, the next day, and the future of Gaza.
She estimated in her article in the newspaper “Israel Today” that there are two possibilities regarding the timing of the US President’s speech, which revealed the Israeli proposal to stop the fighting. The first is that the speech and the timing of its publication were coordinated with Netanyahu, as it is possible that he was the one who called for the speech to be delivered, and the second is that the speech and the timing of its publication were coordinated with Netanyahu. It is that Biden did not inform Netanyahu and “took the plan behind the scenes” to put internal pressure on him.
But Doak tends to adopt the first option, which is that everything is coordinated between Biden and Netanyahu, who is longing for someone to manage this crisis for him, and she says that “despite all the talk of absolute victory, Netanyahu has come to realize that he has reached a dead end, and he needs a lifeline from… the outside”.
She suggested that Biden’s announced plan would have an impact on the political and partisan scene in Israel, as Gantz is pushing a bill to dissolve the Knesset, saying, “Even in Likud, the situation is not calm. There are those who suggested to Netanyahu to set a date for the elections, and his answer was that he would think about the matter.”
The problem is with Netanyahu
In the context of the echoes and interaction of the Biden plan in Israeli political and partisan circles, former Labor Party leader Shelly Yachimovich says that the Netanyahu plan revealed by Biden will not be achieved as long as the signatory holds the position of prime minister, as he will be keen to destroy it, because it conflicts with his existence and political future.
It is believed that the first bullet to kill and eliminate the plan was fired by Netanyahu through his coalition partners from the far-right parties who threatened to dismantle the government, while parties and leaders in the opposition camp have reservations about the plan because of Netanyahu and not because of the Biden administration, as they question his intention in everything related to the conduct of the war and the restoration of the plan. Israeli detainees.
She suggested in her article in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper that the ambiguous approach adopted by the Prime Minister has strengthened the convictions of even party leaders from the right-wing camp in the opposition, that Netanyahu wants an endless war, and is holding Israel hostage for his interests, in isolation from the course and developments of the fighting and without caring about the detainees. Accordingly, they support the draft law to dissolve the Knesset and go to early elections.
Biden pressed
In a reading of the Biden administration’s messages regarding the announcement of the plan to stop fighting, the former Israeli consul in New York, Alon Pinkas, estimated in his article in the newspaper “Haaretz” that Biden acted wisely in announcing the plan, but he proved once again that he “does not explain Netanyahu correctly.” .
The former Israeli consul explained that whether the US President was talking about an actual Israeli proposal or the US administration’s interpretation of Israeli ideas, it is likely that the uproar raised by Biden will push Netanyahu to withdraw, disavow the plan, and fight it.
In light of the state of confusion in the Israeli political scene that followed the unveiling of Biden’s plan, Pinkas says, “If this is an Israeli proposal, it contradicts all of Netanyahu’s statements celebrating absolute victory and the slogans of eliminating Hamas and undermining it militarily and politically.”
The former Israeli consul wondered whether Biden’s goal was to put pressure on Israel, or whether he wanted – and intentionally – to implicate Netanyahu with the coalition partners, saying, “Practically here lies the innovation in Biden’s speech, as he clearly demands not a ceasefire, but rather an end to the war.” This is something that Netanyahu will not agree to.”