The truce is over. Testy negotiations continued in Qatar on Thursday after a meager extension of the humanitarian pause, of just 24 hours, was secured minutes before the previously agreed duration expired.
But on Friday morning, the fighting resumed, the break time having expired. The Israeli army issued a statement saying it had resumed fighting against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, accusing the Palestinian armed group of violating the terms of the truce by firing into Israeli territory. Explosions and gunfire were reported in the northern Gaza Strip.
The Israeli army has long advocated the continuation of the war. On Wednesday, I explained the thinking of the Army staff: Unless they are told the war is over, they assume it is not. They therefore prefer to continue it as quickly as possible, to finish it as quickly as possible, preferably without interruptions which create indecision and weaken morale.
From the decision to follow the October 7 attacks with an armed response, the military approach was most aggressively advocated by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has maintained a hawkish posture throughout the crisis, but has preferred to appear as the overall leader, leaving strictly military affairs in the hands of the former career soldier.
Gallant, until recently an active general who began his career as a naval commando and led the Israeli invasion of Gaza in 2010, is not known for mincing his words. Earlier this year, he warned Hezbollah that Israel would “return Lebanon to the Stone Age” if attacked.
At the start of the operations against Gaza, he described Israel’s enemies as “human animals.” Members of the military, from generals to the lowest reservist, have no doubt that what Gallant says reflects official policy.
On Monday, the last day of the initial four-day pause and before the announcement of its first two-day extension, he made his desires and intentions clear, telling a group of officers and soldiers that the truce would not last very long: “You have a few days. When we resume fighting, we will apply the same force, or even more, and we will fight across the entire Gaza Strip. »
Presumably, Gallant represents and expresses Israeli cabinet policy toward Gaza with much more accuracy and precision than his troubled and embattled prime minister, who is increasingly simply trying to ensure his political survival .
Gallant wants to continue the war because he believes the army can achieve more success the sooner fighting resumes. But he may have something else on his mind: Despite Israeli political tradition of not questioning national leadership during an ongoing war, Netanyahu is increasingly being questioned by his former associates, not just his political opponents. .
It is now clear that despite his notorious political cunning, Netanyahu will have to take responsibility not only for his inability to prevent the humiliation of the intelligence services and the security calamity of October 7, but also for his stubbornness in carrying out everything price of politically divisive judicial reforms, despite warnings that it would harm the country. The writing on the wall is that Israel will finally get rid of Netanyahu as soon as the war is over.
As a senior member of the Likud party that leads the current coalition, Gallant must be aware that after Netanyahu’s political demise, the party will need a new leader. Israelis often favor former officers, especially if they have a track record of success, so he might want to take pole position for this race, sooner rather than later.
Although he was not personally involved in the negotiations, as a member of the inner circle of decision-makers he was certainly aware of all the difficulties involved in negotiating further respite from the fighting.
The defense minister seemed so certain Monday that the truce would not last very long that he even specified how the new attacks would take place: “First they will encounter the bombs of the air force, then the shells from tanks and missiles. the artillery and the legs of the D9s (armored bulldozers), and finally the shooting of the infantry hunters.
He also announced a new stage in the fighting, saying Israel would fight “across the Strip.”
Expanding the ground invasion south of the current line of encirclement of Gaza City would mean a dangerous escalation. At least 1.8 million people of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have been displaced by Israeli bombing, with the majority moving south.
This means that the south is now so overpopulated that there is a risk that a widespread ground attack by Israel will leave Gazans with no choice but to try to force their way through the border fence into Egypt.
From the start of the conflict, Egypt warned that it would not accept any refugees, fearing political destabilization and security risks. If he is confronted with this reality, he could find himself in the worst-case scenario of having to resort to force.
Such escalation would almost certainly draw into war many armed groups and states that have thus far been patient, hoping for a rational outcome.
