On Sunday, the third day of the truce between Hamas and Israel, the two communities seemed to have gotten used to the silence of the guns and the release of captives.
The first releases of the captives, on Friday, were tense because the procedures were unknown to everyone. Expectations were high and everyone was waiting for the first groups to go home. On Saturday, media on both sides of the divide were flooded with moving scenes of families reunited and embracing their loved ones.
At one point on Saturday, it appeared that further celebrations would have to be postponed: Hamas announced that it would not release the second group of prisoners because Israel was not respecting the truce agreement.
Israeli forces were shooting at Palestinians trying to return home, Israel was not releasing prisoners according to agreed guidelines, and, most importantly, aid deliveries were falling short of targets set in the deal. Hamas has warned that unless the agreed number of trucks enter the Gaza Strip, and a significant number of them are transporting supplies north to what remains of Gaza City, there would be no liberation.
Qatari and Egyptian diplomats immediately went into action and a frenzy of phone calls and emails reportedly ensued. Within hours, assurances acceptable to Hamas that the agreed number of aid trucks would arrive in Gaza before the truce expired Tuesday morning were given, and the captives were released late in the evening, the Palestinian detainees a few minutes later.
The two divided communities took to the streets to express their fear, anxiety and frustration for 50 days in massive displays of emotion. In Tel Aviv, 100,000 Israelis rejoiced, half an hour’s drive from Ramallah, Palestinians roamed the city singing and dancing. The celebrations were repeated on Sunday.
Saturday clearly demonstrated how much the world wants and needs this truce to succeed. Even limited to only four days, it nevertheless constitutes the first positive development since October 7 and the international community hastened to extend it, in the hope of making it permanent. We have heard that efforts are continuing, although no details have yet been disclosed, but I am certain that the success of negotiating the current truce has encouraged countries to express to the warring parties, either directly or through through Qatar and Egypt, their desire to see the conflict end. termination and support of any agreement reached by the parties.
The desire for a weak, limited break to become a more lasting cessation of hostilities is so strong that any inconvenience that could spoil it is dismissed, minimized or ignored. Like the killing of eight Palestinians by Israeli forces in the occupied West Bank on Sunday. This made headlines, but no one, including the Palestinian authorities, pushed for the conviction of the perpetrators or raised the issue with an international organization. The truce seemed more precious than a few civilian lives.
Even before the fighting paused Friday morning, it was clear that the warring parties and regional powers were in agreement to give the country a chance and not be disrupted by an irresponsible act. The biggest concerns were that Hezbollah or the Houthis could continue or even intensify their attacks on Israel, endangering the fragile ceasefire. Neither group was a party to the agreement and therefore had no obligation to honor it.
Once again, as on several occasions over the past seven weeks, Iran intervened with unusual delicacy. To ensure that Hezbollah would not do anything rash, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian traveled to Lebanon on Thursday, while pre-truce bombings were still underway, to meet with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The message from Tehran was clear, and the minister repeated it to the media: if the then provisional truce is not respected, “the scope of the war will expand”.
Known for its effective command and disciplined officers and soldiers, Hezbollah has clearly decided to behave as its mentors expected. A single incident was reported on Saturday, when Hezbollah fired a missile at an Israeli observation drone over Lebanese territory. Israel responded with artillery fire aimed at the missile site, but it appeared neither side wanted to escalate the situation further.
The Houthis have not received the same level of attention from Tehran and have therefore shown less restraint. New missile launches against Israel – 2,000 km (1,240 miles) away – were recorded after the truce began. No projectiles managed to penetrate the multi-layered defenses consisting of US Navy destroyers in the Red Sea, an Israeli Navy corvette in international waters atop the Gulf of Aqaba, and IDF aircraft. Israeli air force ready to intercept anything that manages to slip through the onboard missiles. defenses.
In a new escalation, the Houthis continued to threaten cargo ships with suspected links to Israel. Just a few days after hijacking the Bahamas-flagged Galaxy Leader, their armed drones attacked the Maltese-flagged CMA CGM Symi on Saturday without attempting to board, unlike the following incident on Sunday, where they first attacked from the air then attempted to hijack the Central. Park, flying the Liberian flag. The US Navy destroyer USS Mason, which was patrolling the Gulf of Aden, intervened, forcing the attackers to flee the ship.
The Houthis, known for their tenacity and aggressiveness, obviously do not feel obliged to refrain from attacking what they consider Israeli assets. So it’s a blessing that their arsenal seems incapable of spoiling the current deal.
After three days of calm and captivities on both sides, let us remember that this almost idyllic respite is only expected to last until Tuesday and that in less than 24 hours explosions will once again shake the Gaza Strip and more people, civilians and soldiers will be killed.
As the expiration of the truce approached, both sides considered the possibility of an extension. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, venturing into Gaza territory for a brief propaganda photoshoot amid heavy security, hinted that the truce could be extended if Hamas continued to release hostages and that each group of 10 would purchase an extra day of break. Hamas told the Reuters news agency it was seeking to extend the truce but wanted more Palestinians released from Israeli prisons.
While something simmers under a tight lid and the civilians of Palestine and Israel seem hypnotized by three days of “peace”, soldiers and politicians remind them that it is only a break after which the fighting should continue. Chief of the General Staff Gen. Herzi Halevi said Sunday that once the pause expires, his forces “will return to our operations with determination, for the continued release of the hostages and the complete dismantling of Hamas.” . The message was later repeated by Netanyahu, who vowed to continue “until victory.”
Barring a last minute miracle, it will be legal for both sides to resume military activities at 7 a.m. sharp on Tuesday, November 28. I have never seen a ceasefire last until the agreed time: usually, they are either extended by an agreement reached while they are still in force, or they are broken before the deadline.
In the absence of an official extension, it is very likely that the fighting will resume Monday evening after the release of the last batches of hostages and the arrival of the last aid trucks. Realizing the latest prisoner exchange is over, the soldiers may not see the point. wait for hours until the official expiration. Any shots fired on or near the current front lines Monday evening will likely signal every fighter to return to war with all their might.
The only way to prevent the truce from deteriorating is to announce its extension before the release of the last prisoners on Monday.
