Israel’s first response to the Hamas attacks on October 7 was to send air forces to bomb Gaza. The Air Force was given a long list of potential targets, whether linked to the attacks or not. The logic was to show both Israelis and Palestinians that Israel was not depressed but was capable of mobilizing a rapid, resolute and brutal response.
Israel initially released reports on the number of airstrikes it was carrying out, but probably realizing that admitting to bombing Gaza thousands of times was bad public relations, it instead turned to the number of “targets”. » that he hit. The latest figure was released about a week ago, reporting 12,000 targets attacked. Without specifying how they were affected and with what means, this figure does not say much.
But much can be deduced from the total number of bombs used. This week, Palestinian officials announced that 18,000 tons of bombs had been dropped on Gaza. Destructions on the ground are consistent with this figure.
Almost all of the bombs dropped belong to the Mk80 family, designed in the United States and in service since the Vietnam War. Originally designed as conventional free-fall weapons or “dumb bombs,” they have been constantly upgraded with sophisticated targeting devices that have transformed them into “smart bombs.” These bombs are manufactured in different sizes, classified according to the total weight of the weapon: 120 kg (265 lb), 250 kg (551 lb), 500 kg (1,102 lb) and 1,000 kg (2,204 lb).
The Israeli Air Force uses three main types of fixed-wing aircraft, all made in the United States. The primary role of the F-15 fighter is to provide air superiority, although some can also be used as bombers. Israel has ordered 75 of the latest F-35 fighter-bombers and has received about 40 so far. These planes are probably not used to bomb Gaza, but they patrol the skies to protect against any threats. This week, a video was released showing an F-35 shooting down a Houthi cruise missile launched at Israel from Yemen.
The workhorse of the Gaza bombing campaign is the F-16, an old and proven aircraft. Israel built a modified version of the fighter jet to suit its tactics, with a second crew member whose main task is to control precision weapons. About a hundred are in service. Although each can carry 7 tons, for practical purposes it can be assumed that each F-16 takes off with four bombs.
If the four bombs were all 1,000 kg versions, 4,500 flights would be needed to deliver 18,000 tonnes of bombs. But not all bombs used are of the heaviest type, so the number of bombing flights over Gaza could be closer to 6,000.
The Air Force has approximately 170 F-16s of all versions. In any air force, approximately 20 percent of aircraft are out of service at any time for regular maintenance, upgrades or repairs. Israel is known for its professional and rapid support, so around 150 F-16s are likely serviceable at any given time. As the campaign continues, this number will begin to decrease, as continued use will require additional maintenance and replacement of worn parts. But this will happen gradually, and Israel will be able to maintain more than 100 F-16s in flying condition at any time.
So, F-16s apparently fly an average of 1.5 combat missions per day. Given the specifics of the battlefield, with as many as seven Israeli air bases within a 50-100 km radius of Gaza, flight times are short, so pilots can continue flying at the current pace without worrying long-term problems. fatigue sets in. All air forces try to have at least two, preferably three, crews per aircraft. Although the exact numbers are still one of the best-kept secrets, the Israeli Air Force has enough active pilots and reservists with up-to-date training to ensure regular rotations.
While Israel does not have to worry about a possible shortage of troops for aerial combat, it may have to consider the logistics and finances of the bombing campaign.
Six hundred tons of bombs per day is a considerable quantity: it takes around 30 semi-trailers just to transport them. Costs are also rising: a 1,000 kg bomb would cost the US Air Force $16,000. A much smaller foreign customer like Israel would probably have to pay a higher price of $25,000 per ton just for the dumb version, without the cost of adding sophisticated and often much more expensive electronics and targeting hardware.
That’s a daily price well over $15 million just for the basic bomb. With the additions, it’s fair to assume that figure rises to at least $25 million per day. At this rate, the bombing campaign has so far cost Israel at least $750 million in bombs alone.
What about additional costs? The F-16 would have a “very low” flying cost, “only” $8,000 per hour. Assuming a minimum of 300 flight hours per day, that comes to a figure of $2.5 million per day, or $75 million so far.
Adding to the calculation any additional air assets needed to support the bombardment, such as surveillance, reconnaissance, electronic warfare, airborne early warning, command and control, etc., the cost of the entire campaign air is skyrocketing.
Israel has probably spent at least $2 billion bombing Gaza so far, and that figure could be even higher. And that’s without the cost of mobilizing and keeping 360,000 reservists under arms and the ground war Israel unleashed last week.
All this for a very dubious military value. It is obvious that the targets of Israeli bombs are mainly civilians and civilian infrastructure. There is little reason to believe that the figure of more than 9,000 people killed in Gaza, including nearly 4,000 children, includes more than a few hundred Hamas fighters.
Battles are won by men; Wars are won with resources, according to an old military adage. But as the war drags on without the results being clear from the Israeli perspective, Israeli leaders will also wage this war with a calculator in hand.