On January 14, a few days before the ceasefire of Gaza entered into force, the American Secretary of State, now a trainer, Antony Blinken addressed a crowd of the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC.
In the past 15 months, Blinken has played a crucial role in the support of the Israel military campaign against Gaza, a campaign that human rights organizations have described as genocidal, in which at least 47,300 Palestinians were killed.
Israel’s goal, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said was total defeat and Hamas elimination. But speaking in one of his last appearances as Secretary of State on January 14, Blinken brought a different tone.
“We assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new activists as they have lost it,” said Blinken. “It is a recipe for a lasting insurgency and a perpetual war.”
Hamas has beaten but not defeated
Hamas has undoubtedly been touched in the past 15 months, analysts and experts said in Tel Aviv Tribune. He probably lost thousands of fighters, including his military leader Yahya Sinwar and, according to the European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR), his stock of arms is exhausted.
But as dust settles in Gaza, it is clear that Hamas has not been eradicated and always has a presence in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas fighters were in good place in the transfer of Israeli captives as part of the ceasefire agreement with Israel. And members of the civil administration led by Hamas have resumed work. If there is an authority in Gaza, it seems that it is Hamas.
“Hamas has an interest in creating an image of force which is extremely orchestrated, and we should see this as a propaganda exercise,” said Hugh Lovatt from the ECFR, in Tel Aviv Tribune.
Lovatt, however, added that after “more than a year of fighting, the (Hamas) fighters remain very controlled by Gaza”.
“Hamas is trying to show Israel that he failed to destroy it, but also that the movement will have a veto on the future of Gaza in the future because Israel, AP (Palestinian Authority) , nor the international community will be able to impose a post-governance of conflicts or security agreement, “said Lovattt.
The captive outings scenes have taken a lot of guard, including the Palestinians in Gaza.
“I was very surprised to see the number of fighters from Qassam (Hamas military wing) during the release of Israeli captives,” said Fathi al-Ladawi, 67, from Rafah to Nuseirat in the center of Gaza and A father of eight children, Jazeera. “The extent of strikes and bombings, especially in northern Gaza, made us think that Hamas’s human and military resources had been considerably exhausted. But what we have seen proves that they are always strong – perhaps even stronger than before. »»
“(Hamas) was able to keep its hostages, which seemed to be in good condition, and were able to negotiate and sign a cease-fire agreement with the parties who swore to destroy it,” said Omar Rahman, a Stock market in the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Hamas also, according to Blinken’s declaration, able to recruit enough fighters to replace those it lost during the war.
The actual number of Hamas fighters killed during the war is difficult to know with certainty. Hamas affirms that it has lost between 6,000 and 7,000 members of its armed and civil wings, according to a report by the ECFR, based on interviews with two high members of Hamas. But, according to the report, most of the 25,000 estimated Hamas fighters are probably still alive and hide.
Netanyahu said 20,000 “terrorists” had been killed in November 2024, while the military leader of Israel Herzi Halevi said that around 3,000 had been killed between October 6, 2024 and the ceasefire. The UN Human Rights Bureau claims that almost 70% of the deaths verified during this period were women and children.
“Only Hamas knows how many members of their military wing, the Qassam brigades, have been killed,” a Palestinian military analyst was in Gaza. “We see several positions crying relatives in a way that uses a language indicating that they were fighting, but Hamas has not announced anything.”
Hamas can maintain the rebellion “for many years”
Among the few recognized losses, there are a handful of Hamas leaders.
On the first day of the ceasefire on January 19, the spokesman for Hamas, known only as Abu Obeida, said what he claimed to be a “victory speech”. He paid tribute to some of the fallen members of Hamas, including Sinwar, whose death was recorded by an Israeli drone in October; The head of the political block Ismail Haniyeh, killed in Tehran at the end of July; And Saleh al-Arouri, killed in Lebanon in January 2024.
Attar pointed out that Abeida did not include the name of Mohammed Deif, the elusive figure which was one of the founders of the brigades of Al-Qassam. Israel claimed to have killed Deif at the end of July, but death has never been officially recognized by Hamas.
Among the living, let us quote the de facto chief reported from Hamas to Gaza, Mohammed Sinwar, a figure that Israel considers as harder, well trained and more a brain than his late brother, Yahya, and Ezzedine Haddad, who supervises the Qassam brigades in the north of North Gaza.
The declared objectives of Israel also included the destruction of the infrastructure of Hamas, in particular its vast network of tunnels. However, according to Israeli media, the Hamas tunnel network is still widely operational, although estimates from the part of being still intact vary considerably. The members of Hamas told ECFR that many tunnels had been restored or preserved and, in some cases, even widened.
The Hamas rocket arsenal may have been considerably exhausted by Israel. However, improvised and primitive rockets can be rebuilt with unspecified ammunition that remains around Gaza.
Hamas recycles “unspecified Israeli rockets, bombs and artillery shells to use improvised explosive devices and produce new projectiles,” said the ECFR report.
The adaptability of Hamas as a combat force, developed over the years in reaction to the tactic of Israel against it, means that it has been built to take many strokes and be able to continue as organization.
Popularity of Hamas
Hamas is not only a military organization but has directed the Gazan government since 2006, when it has beaten the Fatah in the elections.
And although the popularity of Hamas has increased in the West Bank, in particular since the attack led by Hamas against southern Israel on October 7, 2023, in Gaza, some expressed dissident opinions towards the group. However, the popularity of Hamas has not been greatly affected by the War of Israel against Gaza, as the Palestinian Center suggests for research polls and investigation research.
Opinions on the group vary considerably among the Palestinians in Gaza. Support for Hamas in Gaza was around 35%, according to the last survey in September 2024, down 3 percentage points compared to June 2024.
Some criticisms attacked Hamas’ failure to predict the long and brutal response of Israel to attack. Others said that Hamas had dragged them into a war that the inhabitants of Gaza, who lost family, friends and their houses, did not ask to be part.
One of their detractors was Wael Darwish, 45, from the north of Nuseirat.
“It was a disaster, not a victory,” he said. “We have undergone the greatest disaster in history. If there is a minor triumph, it is because of the resilience of people, not Hamas. »»
“Although I do not deny the sacrifices of the resistance, we are tired,” said Darwish. “Resistance must also consider its people. We shed enough blood.
“If Hamas remains in power, I will leave Gaza immediately,” he continued. “Many feel the same.”
Even before October 7, Hamas was faced with the national opposition – including demonstrations against group policies. Some Palestinians from Gaza, however, said that the last 15 months have changed their opinion on the group.
“I was happy to see people, their number and the security of Hamas fighters,” said 11 -year -old mother at Tel Aviv Tribune Fatima Shammali. “Although I generally do not support Hamas, my support for them increased during the war because they managed to counter, even slightly, the Israeli military arsenal.”
Nihal Barakat, 43, mother of eight children who was moved from the Shati refugee camp in Nuseirat, agreed. “I expect Hamas’s popularity to increase after this war,” she said. “As for its strength, it remains intact, and we hope it will be channeled for the benefit of the people.”
“It is clear that many gasans are frustrated and angry with (Hamas),” said Lovattt. People were angry that Hamas did not think about the consequences of their attack on October 7 and did not plan the “inevitable violent response and disproportionate against Gaza,” added Lovatt.
Lovatt said that group criticism was “felt in Hamas itself”, especially among the moderate wing of the group. There have been “many criticisms of the actions of (the late Hamas) Yahya Sinwar and that of a few others who have made unilateral decisions,” said the analyst, based on his interviews for the report of the ECFR.
But even disapproval should not be considered an approval of the tactics of Israel or its occupation of Palestine, experts said.
“During the genocidal war against Gaza, people did not collaborate (with Israel) because they are the enemy and an occupation,” said Attar, military analyst. “It’s not Hamas. It is the identity, resilience and continuity of the Palestinian people. Just because they love Hamas, but because they love Palestine. »»
“The occupation of our lands must end. The world must stand with us to determine our fate, “said Al-Ladawi, the moved father of eight children. “Save us more war; We are exhausted. We must not be punished simply because among us are members of Hamas, Fatah, Palestinian Islamic jihad) or any other faction. »»