The American Stratfor Center for Strategic and Security Studies expected that the announcement of US President Donald Trump will open sanctions on Syria, the door to the flow of investments from the Arab Gulf states and Turkey, which will help to revive the economy, and encourage the consolidation of its relations with Lebanon and the strengthening of the interim government.
The center stated in a report, that there is a great hope that the pumping of Gulf and Turkish investments will move the wheel of the Syrian economy, reopen trade routes and restore Syria as a regional transit center, especially for oil and gas, which would actually stimulate growth and create job opportunities that are intense.
The European Union and Britain’s taking actual steps to reduce some sanctions imposed on Syria are an indication of a possible international trend in this path.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sku_id6wx-o
Caveats
However, the analysis warns, however, that the heavy damage to the infrastructure due to years of conflict, as well as the ongoing security concerns and the possibility of re -imposing sanctions, can slow the pace of long -term investment.
Moreover, the failure to raise Syria from the American list of countries sponsoring terrorism is a great deterrent to many international investors.
On the political level – the center continues – the lifting of sanctions will allow President Ahmed al -Shara to establish his authority inside Syria.
The ability to provide concrete advantages to the population that was exhausted by the war, such as paying public sector salaries, and implementing the 100 -day package to achieve stability, can enhance its legitimacy and strengthen the pillars of its regime.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xwk-kormug
The center increases, the Sharia president will be in a position that enables him to focus the decision -making process and lure the groups that still oppose the transitional process by joining his government.
However, the integration of various sectarian groups – with their special rules and demands – within a unified national framework, represents a great challenge.
The possibility of relations to return to normal between Syria and Lebanon, driven by common economic interests and the need to address issues such as returning refugees and demarcating borders, seems more immediately applicable than normalization with Israel, for example.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pan32LB05I4
In its analysis, the American Center indicates that the relations between the two countries have been characterized by turmoil over the past two decades due to issues, including Syrian political intervention in Lebanon, Hezbollah interference in the Syrian war, and the presence of Syrian refugees in Lebanon.
With the lifting of the sanctions imposed on Syria, both countries may find mutual incentives to follow up on talks to restore natural relations between them, starting with the long -awaited negotiations on the demarcation of land and sea borders, which may help calm repeated tensions and enable more organized cooperation in the main bilateral issues.
But Stratfor is likely that the Syrian -Israeli normalization will take a longer time compared to the normalization between Syria and Lebanon, which will be clearly defined, although it is still difficult.
