Washington- Since Israel began its attack on Iran, calls have increased in the traditional Conservative circles in Washington, in addition to the Jewish lobby groups, to change the regime in Tehran. This conversation doubled as soon as the United States launched air and missile attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities at dawn on Sunday.
Officially, senior American officials denied any intention of their country to change the regime in Tehran, but this did not stop speculation of the possibility of taking and possibly help in this step if the situation changed and Iranian retaliations began against Washington’s interests.
Supporters of the neo -conservative stream (a current that supports America’s external dominance) is the seriousness of talking about the possibility of changing the regime to the success of the intense Israeli intelligence attacks against Iran, which led to the assassination of a number of senior Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists, and sabotaging defense facilities, up to air domination of Iranian airspace.
Past
They argue that Tehran, which is under pressure and strikes, has not stopped for more than a week, may be more willing to conclude a deal and give up its nuclear ambitions, which may pave the way for an internal change of the regime.
But they ignore the lesson of the past two decades that surrender does not lead to safety. Saddam Hussein has already been eliminated and his country was invaded, and after that former Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi abandoned his nuclear program, and was overthrown.
There is a reason to change the regime unrealistic, as the experience of US President George Bush, the failed son with Iraq and Afghanistan, is still stuck in the minds of millions of Americans, especially with its high human and material cost; In addition to hundreds of thousands of Iraqi dead and wounded, the Afghans, at least 7,000 Americans were killed and tens of thousands of them were injured.
However, this did not prevent American voices close to Israel, from calling for a change in the regime in Iran, while confirming that this is unlikely to happen on its own, and that it only needs a direct American batch.
American analysts often reduce the strength of the Iranian state, and this may contribute to this hostility between the two countries for more than 4 decades, and Tehran closed the door to visits of American researchers and specialists.
After the September 11 attacks, and despite Tehran’s assistance to the United States quietly in its war against the Taliban, the “common enemy of both countries”, President Bush Jr. indicated in the speech “The Case of the Union” to Iran, along with Iraq and North Korea, as part of the “Axis of Evil”.
It is absent from the Washington research circles that the Iranian army, with its double structure, is designed to resist the coups, and in addition to the regular armed forces through the land, sea, air and air defense forces, there are the Revolutionary Guards.
And behind all this is the “Basij” Foundation, which is a wide paramilitary network that includes hundreds of thousands of its members in every corner of Iranian society, in neighborhoods, schools and mosques, and they are not necessarily loyal to the Iranian regime, but are committed to defending state institutions and the independence of Iran.
The coup engineering
Washington and Handaus have previously contributed to the arrangement of a coup that overthrew an Iranian government elected in 1953, and the Iranians remember this well.
That year, the United States helped organize a coup to overthrow the democratic -elected Iranian Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, after pledged to nationalize the oil fields in the country. It is the step that Washington and Britain considered a dangerous blow, given their dependence on oil from the Middle East during that period.
In the context of the US Cold War, the step of nationalization was seen as a victory for the Soviet Union at the time.
The goal of the coup was to support Muhammad Reda Pahlavi, to rule as a wickedness of Iran, and to appoint a new prime minister, and General Fadlallah Zuhdi.
Before the coup, the CIA helped with the British Secret Intelligence Service (SIIS) and the Security Agency cooperating with them, stirring against the anti -Madeq, using misleading propaganda and mobilizing the forces loyal to the Shah together and major protests against Mossadegh, which the army soon joined.
The British documents showed that, to provide Zahdi, the new prime minister of the country, with some stability, the CIA secretly allowed 5 million dollars within two days of taking power.
In 2013, documents were issued – which were dismissed by the agency – which confirmed its involvement for the first time. But the role of the United States is renewed with the recognition of former US President Barack Obama for his desire for a 2009 coup with the start of a wave of demonstrations calling for more freedoms, but it was quickly suppressed.
After the overthrow of the truthful, Washington has strengthened its support to Haloui, and the Iranians resented foreign interference, which fueled the anti -United States feelings in Iran and the absence of confidence so far. After the Shah became a close ally of America, and in the late seventies, millions of Iranians descended to the streets against his regime, which they considered corrupt and illegal.
A continuous break
The secular demonstrators opposed the tyranny of the Shah, while the Islamic demonstrators opposed his agenda to modernize. It was overthrown in the revolution in 1979, which ended the US -backed monarchy, and it was preached to the beginning of the Islamic Republic and the rule of the clergy by Ayatollah Khomeini.
After the success of the revolution, and because of the American support for the regime and symbols of the rule of the Shah, Iranian students stormed the American embassy in Tehran and detained dozens of Americans as hostages, and demanded Washington to hand over the Shah to try it. Washington had allowed Haloui to enter the treatment at the Advanced Cancer Center in the state of Texas.
444 days later, Iran released the hostages in exchange for raising the freezing of the country’s assets minutes after former President Ronald Reagan was sworn in. During the crisis, the United States cut all official diplomatic relations with Tehran, and has not been restored to this day.
Some experts ask whether Washington’s attacks on Iran could lead to internal political explosions that threaten the survival of the Iranian revolutionary regime.
Israel has not hidden the hope that its attack would cause the fall of this system, but such a collapse of the government could lead to a more hostile and dangerous system, which may be led by elements of the Revolutionary Guards, with the belief of Americans.
If the Iranian state is dissolved, a civil war may erupt and catastrophic instability can spread beyond the borders of Iran.
The Wall Street newspaper promotes the step of changing the system in Tehran despite its risks, and one of its editorials says two days ago, that “it is difficult to believe that the successor of the Iranian revolutionary regime that has taken power since 1979 can be worse for the region than the current system.”
“The new leaders may want to abandon any nuclear ambitions and join the new world of trade emerging in the Middle East, while the current regime will continue to dominate the region.”