Germany, which was already Ukraine’s main European supporter, announced the doubling of its aid to Kiev for the year 2024. The country is continuing its military investments in parallel to become “the backbone of European defense” . A course that Germany hopes to maintain in the long term, counting on the support of public opinion despite a difficult economic context.
While the war with Russia seems to be bogged down for a long time and the crisis in the Middle East is focusing attention, the Ukrainians fear seeing their fight sink into oblivion. They can nevertheless count on the support of Germany, which announced on Sunday November 12 the doubling of its military aid to kyiv.
“This is a strong signal to Ukraine that we are not letting it down,” Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on public television channel ARD, confirming press reports on the doubling of the envelope. budgetary.
The reassessment of the amount of aid, which will increase from 4 to 8 billion euros, corresponds “to the experience we have had this year and which showed that the planned amounts were quickly exhausted”, he said. He specifies.
A declaration which symbolizes the increase in German military aid to Ukraine, which had experienced, at the start of the large-scale invasion of Russia, timid beginnings to say the least.
From weak link to first European support
In January 2022, faced with the imminent Russian invasion, Ukraine turned to NATO to request military support. While the United States and the United Kingdom had agreed to provide defensive weapons, the German proposal to send 5,000 helmets caused a real outcry in Ukraine.
“Aid to Ukraine has given rise to a particularly difficult debate in Germany, for both historical and economic reasons,” recalls Éric-André Martin, researcher specializing in Germany at Ifri (French Institute of international relationships). “Not only does the country have a policy of not supplying weapons to a country at war, but German officials were also very bothered by the idea of opposing Russia which supplied them with 50% of their gas.”
A year after the helmet affair, Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht, already criticized for her lack of initiative, is pushed towards the exit after having congratulated herself on December 31, 2022 in a video, that the war in Ukraine gave “the opportunity to meet so many wonderful and interesting people”.
At the same time, controversy is growing around the sending of German Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Because not only does Germany refuse to supply its precious armored vehicles to kyiv, but it also opposes the re-export to Ukraine of vehicles purchased by its allies. Under pressure, Chancellor Olaf Scholz will finally accede to these demands on January 25, 2023, during a speech to the German Parliament.
“Germany was not the only European country that feared adding fuel to the fire by delivering advanced military equipment to Ukraine to fight Russia. But it is true that it has long shown itself particularly cautious”, analyzes Gaspard Schnitzler, research director at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris), specialist in European defense and arms industry issues.
“This difficulty in deciding is linked to the political configuration of Germany, led by a coalition encompassing three parties with very different perspectives, to a policy of drastic export controls, but also to the German constitution, adopted after the Second World War. global to avoid the verticality of power. Decisions are adopted in a collegial manner and therefore take longer, which its partners have had difficulty understanding. But we can also consider that once they are taken, they are more definitive.”
Nearly two years after the start of the war, Germany gradually rose to the rank of kyiv’s primary military supporter in Europe. According to the Kiel Institute, which compiles data on support for the Ukrainian war effort, Berlin has committed more than 17.1 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine since January 24, 2022. An amount certainly incommensurate with the 42 billion American euros, but more than twice higher than the investment of the United Kingdom (7 billion) and which corresponds to 34 times that of France.
An investment which has increased considerably this last year due to the delivery of the Leopard 2, but also of Gepard anti-aircraft defense systems, as well as shells.
“Today, Germany wants to be exemplary in its support for Ukraine to make people forget its hesitations at the start of the war and its policy of economic openness towards Russia. Because the signing of the opening of the Nord Stream II gas pipeline, concluded after the annexation of Crimea, was very poorly received by Ukraine, the Baltic countries as well as Poland”, continues the Iris expert.
Rise of the Bundeswehr
For Germany, this massive support for Ukraine is also and above all a question of national security. Realizing the extent of the threat to its own security from seeing Russia conquer Ukraine, Berlin began a radical shift towards increasing power from the start of the war.of its army, breaking with decades of underinvestment.
After announcing in February 2022 a special fund of 100 billion euros over five years to modernize the Bundeswehr, the country adopted its first “national security strategy” in June. On November 9, the Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, revealed his orientations in matters of defense policy, promising to make his army “the backbone of collective defense in Europe.
“The amount announced may seem very significant, but it must be understood that it is above all a catch-up investment,” underlines Éric-André Martin.
“Germany was well below NATO commitments setting defense spending at 2% of GDP, continues the specialist. It was in a way a stowaway in its contribution to European defense In the name of budgetary stability, it placed the burden on other members of the Alliance and in particular on the United States, which had sparked strong tensions with Donald Trump. With this strategic turning point, Berlin is counting transform its defense policy in the long term. This is an effort to reassure the United States, particularly for nuclear sharing with the purchase of F-35 fighter planes, as well as “offer a military hierarchical framework within NATO in which European countries with fewer resources will be able to integrate their battalions.”
A change of gear in times of crisis
For Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, the status of Europe’s largest economy gives Germany a particular “responsibility” in terms of the bloc’s defense, which it now intends to assume.
This ambitious transformation nevertheless comes at a time when the country is going through a period of economic turbulence. Germany, which had based its energy strategy on the supply of cheap Russian gas, is on the front line facing the inflationary crisis which has hit the continent since the outbreak of war and the introduction of sanctions against Moscow.
“The country was counting on Russian energy to implement its transition to renewables. It must now obtain its supplies elsewhere, and this costs it much more. Added to this are the slowness of the industrial transition, because the “Germany has invested little in electricity and its automotive sector is losing competitiveness compared to the Chinese,” adds Éric-André Martin.
In this context, the International Monetary Fund revised its forecasts on the contraction of the German economy at the beginning of October, now forecasting a decline of 0.5% in GDP, compared to a decline of 0.3% previously for 2023. This is by far the worst annual performance among the bloc’s economies.
“The special fund of 100 billion over five years to finance the army does not weigh heavily compared to Germany’s GDP, which amounts to 4,000 billion euros. The same goes for the envelope dedicated to support for Ukraine. But the difficulty is that for these investments to be effective, they must be long-term”, analyzes Éric-André Martin. “If the difficulties in the German economy persist and they impact households too heavily, the government could be forced to reassess its budgetary decisions.”
“The Russian invasion broke the taboo in Germany on the question of national defense,” analyzes Gaspard Schnitzler. “The vast majority of Germans are in favor of supporting Ukraine despite its cost, and are now aware of the importance of strengthening their army.”
The Iris researcher nevertheless believes that, despite favorable public opinion, several questions remain regarding Berlin’s capacity to maintain this policy.
“We still feel some groping in the financing of German rearmament. To be sustainable, these investments must gradually shift to the defense budget. But for the moment, everything still relies on the special fund of 100 billion dinars. ‘euros. Finally, we can wonder what will happen to this policy when the war in Ukraine ends. Because once the immediate threat has passed, it is always more difficult to justify to public opinion maintaining a level high military spending.