Late on Monday night, July 14, the wings of Yahdout Hatura – Diggah Hatura and Israel’s budgets – announced their withdrawal from the Israeli government coalition headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, the government that entered history as the full right government.
The eastern “Shas” party was not late to wave withdrawal, as its leaders announced that they were in the process of withdrawing from the government until Thursday, and the reason is the failure of the Netanyahu government to pass a law that exemptes acceptable wide segments of Bahraini religious school students from military service.
The controversy and records on this matter have been a subject of a wide political and societal division in Israel over the past two decades, but the choice of the current moment to withdraw from the government, in light of the longest war in the history of Israel, and in the fever of negotiations to exchange prisoners and stop the war, leaves long -term traces.
On the one hand, due to the great losses in the ranks of the Israeli army in Gaza, the army’s need for more recruits, and the presence of a government that is pushing for the expansion of the war, a large majority of Israeli society rejects the bargaining to exempt the Haredi from military service. The issue of sharing the burdens of defense has become a central issue in the political programs of most political parties, some of which declare the necessity of enacting a fair law for civil and military compulsory service that applies to all young people.
But the Harid parties, for various reasons, demand that the Torah study be a kind of public service, because they have preserved for centuries on Jewish principles and values. Some even believe that it is the religious study that protects Israel even in light of wars, more than the arts and combat equipment.
In light of the attrition
A poll published by the National Security Studies Center indicated that the Israeli army faces one of the most dangerous crises in the human forces in its history, in light of the attrition and fighting on multiple fronts, especially on the Gaza front.
The results of the recruitment regarding the recruitment indicated that 71 percent of the Israelis believe that the exemption of most of the Haridim from the service will harm the motives of the service. She said that 41% of Israeli families will recommend their children not to join the military service, if a law enables the Haredi from this service, and that 45% said that if such a law is approved, they will encourage their children to recruit the Israeli army, but not in combat tasks.
This shows the size of polarization in Israeli society about exempting the Haridim from service, and it is also related to their participation in economic life and the amount of the burden they are.
Israeli economic bodies believe that the recruitment and involvement of Haridim in economic life provides the Israeli economy at least 100 billion shekels annually. According to the prevailing estimates, the decision to recruit the Haridim affects at least 80,000, the rules of mandatory recruitment or reserve service apply to them.
The Haredi Parties and Chairman of the Knesset Foreign and Security Committee of Likud Yollet Adlstein had exchanged accusations about the agreement that was talking about months ago, in a statement made by Adlstein after the announcement of the withdrawal from the coalition, accused the representatives of the Harid blocs in the Knesset of violating the agreements reached.
However, the Haridi parties launched a joint attack on Adlstein, and published a statement saying, “Juli Adlstein plays a political game at the expense of the service, taking advantage of the sarcasm of the suffering of the families, and the right -wing government of the right. A senior official of the Harid Party later joined the attack, threatening, “We will not participate in any future government in which Adlstein takes over a portfolio or committee.”
Minority
Netanyahu tried with all his ability to prevent the withdrawal of “Yahdout Hatura” from the coalition, because he knows that this is also an introduction to the withdrawal of “Shas”, which makes his coalition based only on 60 Knesset members after Avi Maouz withdrew from him, and in the event of the withdrawal of Shas, the coalition becomes 50 Knesset members.
There are those who believe that Netanyahu is betting on extending the survival of his government until the summer Knesset holiday that begins on July 25. Netanyahu is planning to work as a minority government, because he realizes that the opposition is not united against him, and thus begins to deal with parties outside his coalition in the piece, not in bulk. During the holiday, Netanyahu works to make promises to the Haredi parties by enacting a law that achieves their goals after the end of the Knesset summer vacation.
During the summer vacation, Netanyahu is trying to arrange the situation even inside the Likud, in order to restrict the opponents of the Haridim pathogenic recruitment law. In his current directions, Netanyahu is based on his awareness that things are heading towards new elections, and he wants to be who is planning them and not who is being done to them.
Netanyahu hopes to hold the elections during the first quarter of the year 2026, and he believes that he will be ready to head the oath after getting rid of some of the negative effects of the Gaza war and benefited from the fruits of his accomplishments in the ocean.
Political effects
He explained that what is happening on the political scene and shake the corners of the coalition in some way on important political issues, most notably the ceasefire negotiations and the exchange of prisoners taking place in Doha. There are in Israel, even those who believe in the conspiracy theory, and some believe that all the crisis of the agreement with the Haridim is in some way to thwart the Doha negotiations.
But others, among them senior officials, appear only for their fear that the withdrawal of Haridim will negatively affect the ceasefire negotiations, as the new developments will feel the increase in the narrow margin of his political maneuvering, and that he has become more needy for the ministers of extremism in the wallet A larger politician within the coalition, with the 13 -member Church members.
It is true that in everything related to the ceasefire and exchange deal, there is wide coverage of Netanyahu by the opposition, especially “there is a future” and “white blue” and even from “Israel Our Home” led by Avigdor Lieberman. But Netanyahu has always considered the audience of these parties not his fans, and therefore it is difficult for him to rely on them.
However, there are steps on the ground by the Israeli army, including the idea of a “human city” that guarantees the continuation of the war, and Smotrich and perhaps Ben Ghaffir may convince acceptance of Netanyahu’s arguments on the necessity of partial agreement, and Netanyahu is all the extremists in the Likud and the right that the war not end until after achieving the declared goals.
There are those who see that Netanyahu succeeded in persuading Smutrich and Ben Ghaffir to oppose the agreement and remain in the government, and Netanyahu also relying on the fact that the Harid parties as well as the right parties are not in a hurry to dismantle the right -wing government, and that Smutrich and Ben Ghafir may not aspire to take responsibility for causing the right -wing government.
The fate of the government and the negotiations
Perhaps for these reasons, Netanyahu is trying to drag negotiations and not conclude the deal until after the start of the Knesset holiday, as the vacation gives it a more comfortable atmosphere for a period of not less than two months and without any direct threat to the survival of his government.
“Yediot” has seen that Netanyahu possesses a clear and decisive majority in the government and the mini ministerial council, namely the decisive decision of the exchange and ceasefire deal in the event of the absence of the Knesset, as it also possesses, as predecessors, the support of sectors of the opposition, as well as the support of Shass and Al -Haraidim for the deal, and this weakens the opponents of the deal within the government. Netanyahu also has a strong paper, which is the necessity of responding to the American demands, especially as it comes from President Trump.
According to “Yediot”, Washington exerted pressure on Netanyahu, and was able to persuade him to agree to matters that he was not ready to give up previously. Senior ministers admitted to the newspaper, “The Americans have pushed more flexibility in the position of Israel, even in matters that were not ready to be waived previously, and Netanyahu was able to persuade Ben Ghaffir and Samotic to agree that they will express their opposition, but they will not resign from the government.”
The newspaper concluded that “Netanyahu’s commitment to Americans is greater and stronger than his commitment to Smotrich and Bin Ghafir, especially since in light of the current situation, there is no threat to resolving the government, at least at the present time.”
There is an increasing conviction in Israel that political survival is the first supreme goal of Netanyahu, and this is what moves it on a conflicting horizon that calls for a war, but it accepts a partial agreement in the hope of completing it in better conditions.
With the withdrawal of Haridim, Netanyahu lost the majority, but he has not lost control yet, neither on the ruling, nor on the government, the Haraidim are not based on staying in the ranks of the opposition, and they always aspire to benefit from their proximity to the power of government, and therefore the withdrawal of Hatoura from the coalition was not accompanied by the announcement of his joining the opposition, and this is also the case of Shas if the rabbi council decides to withdraw from the coalition, They are just pressure papers to get from Netanyahu on better dealings in any new recruitment law. Of course, these parties do not intend to vote on blocking confidence in the government in the remaining days on the start of the Knesset its summer vacation.
