Support for Ukraine remains overwhelming across the European Union, but the poll’s authors say policymakers should focus on defining an acceptable peace.
Only one European in ten judges a victory for Ukraine against Russia to be possible, according to a poll carried out within the European Union.
This poll was carried out in twelve EU countries, including France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden, and reveals that several factors are fueling the pessimism about the outcome of the war tearing Ukraine apart, namely the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, a potential political shift on the part of the United States and a possible return of Donald Trump to the White House.
The study, titled “Wars and Elections: How European Leaders Can Maintain Public Support for Ukraine,” indicates that 20 percent of respondents predict a Russian victory.
These conclusions come on the eve of the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, initiated on February 24, 2022.
Although support for kyiv remains massive among the populations of European countries, those interviewed believe that some form of “compromise” would be the most likely outcome to end this war.
This is a change in perception, since this time last year, a majority of Europeans believed that Ukraine should regain all the territories it had lost.
The report’s authors believe that, based on these findings, EU policymakers should adopt a more “realistic” approach, focusing on ways to achieve lasting peace.
“To justify continued European support for Ukraine, EU leaders will need to make a change in the way they choose to talk about the war,” said Mark Leonard, co-author of the European Council on Foreign Relations ( ECFR), sponsor of the survey, cited by the Guardian.
Most Europeans say they are “ready to do anything to prevent a Russian victory”, but do not believe that kyiv can win militarily, he continued.
Mark Leonard says arguments for more aid should focus on how it “could lead to a lasting, negotiated peace in Kiev’s favor, rather than a victory for Putin.” in the face of an increasingly skeptical population.
According to polls, Ukrainians remain largely opposed to any settlement that would involve ceding territory to Russia.
Some experts say that a peace deal providing for the transfer of Ukrainian territories could embolden the Kremlin, which could provoke further conflicts. Others believe, on the contrary, that it is essential to put an end to the bloodbath which has lasted for almost two years in Ukraine.
The survey was carried out last January. Since then, Moscow has won a strategic and symbolic victory in the Donetsk region, after the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Adiivka.
Hungary (64%), Greece (59%) and Italy (52%) prefer to push Kiev to accept a settlement, while Sweden (50%), Portugal (48%) and Poland (47%) ) say they are in favor of Ukraine regaining territories.
Finally, opinions are more divided in Spain, the Netherlands, Germany and France.