The European elections are those which mobilize citizens the least in Portugal. On June 9, will the Portuguese follow the trend of the last legislative elections and vote?
During the last European elections in 2019, Portugal recorded the highest rate of abstention since its accession to the European Union.
From 1987 to 2019, the figures for abstention and participation in European elections have been reversed. In three decades, the country went from less than 30% abstention to just over 30% participants. A figure which places Portugal alongside Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, where less than 30% of voters went to the polls.
Political discontent is a major cause of this situation, but some observers say that abstention could drop on June 9, like the last legislative elections.
There is, however, hope of a possible drop in abstention during the elections of June 9, following the trend of the last legislative elections of March 10, where the participation rate reached 59.84%.
“The Portuguese feel European, they belong to Europe and know the benefits that the European Union brings them, but it remains to connect to European institutions and understand how they work. This question is more difficult, because we are talking about “institutions that are far from Portuguese territory, but which, in recent years, have somehow invested in different forms of communication, even through social networks”explains Francisco Cordeiro de Araújo, visiting assistant at the Faculty of Law of the University of Lisbon (FDUL).
“These results will take time to emerge, but I feel like there is a growing sense of responsibility on the part of those in Brussels and Strasbourg to get the message out and highlight the importance of the EU”he adds.
Lack of knowledge about the European Union or the European Parliament is another reason given to justify abstention. According to the European policy barometer of the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation, less than half of Portuguese people can name a Portuguese MEP or the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.
“We are facing two different problems. It is, for example, understanding how MEPs can communicate better about their work, but also realizing that the decisions taken in the different institutions have an influence on our daily lives. I think it’s a question of literacy, European political literacy, and it has to start in schools.”says the founder of the project “Bone 230”which has developed studies in the field of civic participation and the promotion of political learning and the fight against abstention through informed voting.
As the European elections approach, young Portuguese, like Romanians, stand out among the 27 Member States in terms of voting intentions. According to the Eurobarometer on youth and democracy, published by the European Commission, 77% of Portuguese aged 18 to 30 intend to vote to nominate the 21 Portuguese deputies who will sit in the European Parliament.
For Francisco Cordeiro de Araújo, “young people are more and more attentive to Europe”notably because“they grew up with Portugal already present in the EU and with a more active voice, and that they benefit from advantages such as the Erasmus program”.
Who will benefit and who will be harmed by abstention?
The European elections should also mirror the national elections in terms of the growth of the right. Given the proximity of the two elections, it is expected that the majority of voters have not changed their beliefs and if Chega was the party that made the most progress on March 10, the same could be true today .
“The more right-wing parties, in particular, are better represented in the national parliament and are more expressed in terms of electoral popularity. I think that the parties which are part of this more right-wing political family will benefit from these elections, in particular because that they have had no representation until now”estimates Francisco Cordeiro de Araújo, who teaches international law, European Union law and political science at FDUL.
European polls conducted so far indicate that the upcoming elections could lead to a change in the composition of the European Parliament. Radical and populist parties on the left and right are expected to gain votes and seats, while more moderate parties in the center will not. This is also the researcher’s conviction.
“It is almost certain that the parties that currently have seats in the European Parliament will be different. There will be more Portuguese parties and some of them already present will lose their strength. If the more moderate parties fail to s “adapt in terms of communication and if the number of abstentions decreases, this will mean that the other parties (more radical) have succeeded in capturing the electorate who vote and believe in these messages.”
Portugal will once again have 21 MEPs, but this time they could represent very different political backgrounds.
The latest poll from the Catholic University for RTP, Antena 1 and the Público newspaper shows a technical tie between AD (31%) and the PS (30%), with the right-wing coalition having a slight advantage over the Socialists. Chega appears as the third political force with 15% of voting intentions, while the other parties are below double figures. The Liberal Initiative with 6%, the Bloc, the Book and the CDU tied with 5 – the threshold to be elected – and the PAN with only 1%, which would leave the animalist and environmentalist party outside the European Parliament.
