Between stability and explosion
The Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon, the escalation with Iran and in Yemen, and the fall of the regime in Syria created a new scene for the region.
Analysts believe that Iran was the “biggest loser” in the “confrontation of the year” after the weakening of its arms and allies by Israel or their collapse, as happened in Syria, which will make it isolated in the face of the continuous Israeli threats to attack it as “the head of the axis of resistance.”
Analysts believe that Tehran – which has lost a large part of its influence and cards in the region if it has not exited it – faces difficult choices in 2025, ranging between continuing the “brinkmanship game” with Israel with the risks of a major war in the region or accepting an unsecured deal in which it gives up… Its nuclear ambitions, especially while it is in a weak state, or resorting to the option of manufacturing nuclear weapons, which is a red line that neither Israel nor the next US President, Donald Trump, will accept.
With Trump’s return to the White House on January 20, 2025, Netanyahu is likely to hope to obtain the American green light to proceed with maximum pressure on Iran, support his settlement policies and war in Gaza, remain in the territories it recently occupied in Syria, and further escalate against the Houthis in Yemen.
Israel looks with great concern and bewilderment at the support front that the Houthis opened against it in the Red Sea, then the escalation of their missile strikes that targeted Israeli cities and facilities. Tel Aviv failed to intercept many missiles and drones, and it also failed to deter the Houthis with two direct attacks on Hodeidah and Sanaa.
For Netanyahu, the “Yemeni Front” remains the last hot link within the “Ring of Fire,” which may make it an Israeli and American focus during 2025, in light of Israeli threats to intensify attacks and perhaps intervene directly with American support.
Netanyahu is looking for what he calls “complete victory” during the year 2025, among the main goals he shares with the Israeli right: changing the shape of the Middle East by imposing Israeli sovereignty over parts of the West Bank, restoring settlement in the Gaza Strip, attacking Iran, and ending its nuclear programs, but he still needs support from the US President. Next, Donald Trump, whose policies in the region are not yet clear.
Analysts believe that the return of Trump and his policies and trends will be considered a “millstone” in shaping the new scene in the Middle East and the world, and in fueling or controlling conflicts, with analysts and observers doubting the possibility of curbing Israel.
The year 2024 can be read in the Middle East as a year of major and stormy transformations, which analysts believe may open the door to little hopes for stability and great possibilities of explosion and more geopolitical changes.