“A peaceful dialogue will be able to open with Brussels”

The assumption of office of Donald Tusk, a convinced pro-European, at the head of the Polish government, Wednesday December 13, aroused the enthusiasm of the European Union, at odds with Poland after eight years of power of populist nationalists in this country.

Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, allied with two other political groups, won a majority in Parliament in the October 15 election against the nationalists of Law and Justice (PiS). The former prime minister and his government won the support of Parliament on Tuesday in a vote of confidence, sealing their arrival in power.

Also, congratulations from EU member states poured in after Warsaw’s new strongman was sworn in on Wednesday. France welcomed a partner with whom it wishes to “advance the European Union”, according to a press release from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Donald Tusk will “bring Poland back to the heart of the EU”, declared German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. “This is precisely where he belongs,” stressed the German leader on X, saying he was delighted “to advance the EU and German-Polish relations side by side with Poland”.

Donald Tusk was President of the European Council between 2014 and 2019 and leader of Europe’s largest party, the European People’s Party (EPP), with which he is still affiliated. “He’s a man of the inner circle,” comments Olivier Costa, political scientist and researcher at CNRS and Sciences Po Paris. “A peaceful dialogue will be able to open with Brussels,” believes the researcher.

He is “a very popular figure in Brussels”, adds Dorota Dakowska, professor of political science at Sciences Po Aix, specialist in central and eastern Europe. A veteran politician who previously served as Prime Minister of Poland between 2007 and 2014, he is committed to restoring Poland’s position within the EU.

Restore European funds as quickly as possible

True to his word, Donald Tusk dedicated his first trip abroad to Brussels on Wednesday evening, to attend the EU-Balkans summit. A reassuring signal for Europeans, accustomed since PiS came to power to a permanent standoff with their Polish counterparts.

“Le Pis took an increasingly hard line towards the European Union. They had come to the point – like Viktor Orban (the Hungarian Prime Minister) – of systematically criticizing all the decisions taken and to denounce the EU as a bureaucratic and imperialist entity preventing Poles from living as they wanted”, recalls Olivier Costa.

Even before returning to his role as Prime Minister, Donald Tusk visited Brussels several times, notably for an EPP summit at the end of October, working behind the scenes for a speedy restoration of European funding.

A precious windfall, to the tune of 76.5 billion euros in “cohesion funds” for the period 2021-2027, intended to raise the standard of living in the poorest regions of Europe. However, Poland has been deprived of this since June 2022 by the European Commission, which made the payment of this aid conditional on respect for the rule of law and the independence of the judicial system, endangered by the PiS.

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The PiS, still very powerful in Poland

Donald Tusk intends to tackle the issue and has already announced reforms aimed at unlocking these funds, by applying the judgments of the European Court of Justice, by joining the European Public Prosecutor’s Office and by separating the portfolios of minister from Justice and Attorney General.

But the new Prime Minister does not have as free a hand as he would like. “These changes in the legal system will not be easy to implement,” says Dorota Dakowska, “because the former government appointed judges violating the principles of the rule of law. They are there and it will be difficult to make them leave overnight. We will have to go back on all these things that were put in place by the PiS, while still respecting the law and procedures.”

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Another obstacle for Donald Tusk, the PiS still has allies in the presidency, the central bank, the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court, as well as in several important judicial and financial institutions of the Polish state. The new government will notably have to deal with conservative President Andrzej Duda, the supreme commander of the Armed Forces, who has a right of veto over draft laws. As for the definition of the country’s national and international policy, the Prime Minister is responsible for this but he must cooperate with the Head of State, according to the Constitution.

Sparing the Eurosceptics

“On the side of the European Commission, and the future Belgian Presidency of the Council, they will do everything possible to give Poland room for budgetary maneuver and, in a certain way, indicate to Polish citizens that they have done the right thing. good choice,” adds Olivier Costa.

If Donald Tusk enjoys the favors of Brussels, his positions will not necessarily be systematically aligned with those of the Franco-German hard core. The new Prime Minister is willing to welcome Ukraine into the EU for geostrategic reasons, but regarding the modalities of enlargement, even Donald Tusk is quite reluctant.

“Poland needs guarantees not to lose all the European funds from which the country benefits today, in favor of new, poorer members. Warsaw would also like to be assured of not being subjected to unbridled competition from Ukraine in agricultural matters”, analyzes Olivier Costa.

On the European question, in particular those of new treaties, Donald Tusk is cautious, notes Olivier Costa. “He is already on a defensive line of defense, because he has to deal with his public opinion. It is not because the liberals won the majority in Parliament that suddenly the whole country has become Europhile. We must therefore not expect a complete reversal”, concludes the researcher.

With AFP