Beirut, Lebanon – A 10-nation U.S.-led coalition is unlikely to be able to stop Yemen’s Houthi rebels from attacking ships in the Red Sea, but both sides have an interest in avoiding an escalation that could spiraling out of control, analysts told Tel Aviv Tribune. .
Their attacks on commercial and military vessels potentially linked to Israel are, according to Houthi officials, aimed at pressuring Israel to end its war against Gaza. Houthi attacks have been popular in Yemen, allowing the group to recruit new fighters.
“The Houthis are not going to stop what they are doing until the Israeli offensive in Gaza is over,” Gregory Brew, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, told Tel Aviv Tribune, “and even then they will likely continue for some time. After.”
Israeli bombings and artillery fire have killed more than 20,000 Palestinians in Gaza since October 7.
An “underestimated” leverage effect
On November 19, the Houthis took control of an Israel-linked cargo ship, the Galaxy Leader, and soon after released a stunning video of the vessel’s capture. It has since become a tourist attraction for Yemenis. The group then attacked numerous ships passing through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a narrow passage leading to the Red Sea and further to the Suez Canal.
The Red Sea and Suez Canal account for 30 percent of global container ship traffic.
“The Houthis’ position in northern Yemen places them at a critical geopolitical chokepoint,” Sanam Vakil, deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, told Tel Aviv Tribune. “This has been underestimated by the international community in recent years.”
So far, no injuries or deaths have been reported from the Houthi attacks. But the consequences remain immense for global maritime transport. At least 12 shipping companies have suspended transit through the Red Sea following the attacks, including some of the world’s largest: the Italian-Swiss giant Mediterranean Shipping Company, France’s CMA CGM and Denmark’s AP Moller-Maersk.
About 12 percent of the world’s seaborne oil and eight percent of liquefied natural gas pass through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, mainly destined for Europe. But other products such as grains, palm oil and manufactured goods are also affected by the attacks. Many companies instead travel around the southern tip of Africa, extending their trip by about nine days and costing at least 15 percent.
The answer
In response, the United States imposed sanctions on 13 suspected Houthi financiers. And it has assembled a 10-nation maritime coalition to try to deter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Other members include the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Seychelles and Bahrain.
Yemen’s internationally recognized government, which operates from Aden after nine years of a devastating war led by the Houthis, has condemned the attacks on the Red Sea as usurpations of their sovereignty. But he finds himself in a difficult position because he does not want to be seen as supporting Israel, Nicholas Brumfield, a Yemen researcher, told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Meanwhile, Iran, one of the Houthis’ main backers, remains cautious about moves that could lead to an expansion of the war in Gaza across the region. However, Iran’s influence over the Houthis has its limits, experts say.
“They have common goals with Tehran, but we should not overestimate Iran’s influence on the Houthis,” Eleonora Ardemagni, senior associate researcher at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), told Tel Aviv Tribune ). “They have their own agenda.”
Palestinian support and mobilization
Before October 7, the Houthis were under domestic pressure over issues such as unpopular government reforms and non-payment of salaries. But their support for the people of Gaza is extremely popular among Yemenis.
“They have long been ideologically opposed to Israel,” Vakil said of the Houthis. “In particular, they attempt to demonstrate the transnational implications of their views and showcase their power and positioning. »
Houthi state media have announced more than 1,000 protests, boycotts or recruitment campaigns since the start of the war, according to Brumfield. Many people in Yemen are tired of fighting, after just under a decade of civil war. But support for Palestine proved so popular that the Houthis were able to recruit new fighters – who they were then able to deploy for the domestic war.
“They recruited a group of fighters on the promise that they would go fight in Palestine,” Brumfield said. “They said, ‘You will go and fight in Palestine,’ and then they deployed these forces against the Yemeni government stronghold of Marib.”
The Red Sea attacks may also be partly a diplomatic strategy, some analysts say. In recent months, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia have engaged in dialogue aimed at a long-term ceasefire, following a United Nations-brokered truce in 2022 that largely ended the fighting. Saudi Arabia supports Yemen’s internationally recognized government. Tensions in the Red Sea and potential disruptions to oil trade have hurt most regional economies, of which Saudi Arabia is the largest.
“From their point of view, (the attack on transport ships) is an opportunity to up the ante against Saudi Arabia,” Vakil said. “What we could see is a renegotiation of sorts. »
Red lines in the Red Sea
The impact on global shipping through Bab al-Mandeb and the Red Sea prompted action from the United States and other allies. But so far, this does not appear to have deterred the Houthis.
“We stressed to everyone that the (Houthi) operations are aimed at supporting the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and that we cannot stand idly by in the face of aggression and siege,” the spokesperson said. Houthi spokesman Mohamed Abdulsalam in comments to Tel Aviv Tribune. Monday. “As for naval operations, they are in full swing and perhaps not 12 hours will go by without an operation.”
Yet despite the rhetoric, the Houthis and the United States have so far shown some restraint.
On November 26, the Houthis fired two ballistic missiles that landed near a US warship. Brumfield believes the Houthis deliberately missed the warship.
Currently, the US coalition is focusing more on defending ships crossing the Red Sea by intercepting Houthi attacks. “The United States also doesn’t want to make this crisis worse,” said Brew, the Eurasia Group analyst. The United States has so far not retaliated towards Yemen, despite missiles launched by the Houthis towards the Red Sea.
A change in this equation is not in the interest of the Houthis. “They know not to cross that line,” he said. The Houthis do not want a scenario in which “the United States stops viewing the Houthis as the unpleasant but tolerable rulers of northern Yemen and perhaps actually commits to ousting them.”
