Kiev- After the truce of the three days announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin on the occasion of “Victory Day”, it seems that the war in Ukraine will enter a new stage, with Ukrainian and Western calls for a comprehensive ceasefire for 30 days, which was corresponding to a Russian call for direct negotiations on the basis of those held in Istanbul during the first weeks of the outbreak of the war.
But the scene is still foggy, as Kiev and her Western allies insist on the need to stop the shooting starting from Monday as a pre -negotiating condition, which Moscow, which calls for negotiations, rejects next Thursday, considering that the solution to “radical differences” cannot start without direct dialogue.
While Ukraine is trying to push the ball to the Moscow stadium, Ukrainian President Folodimir Zellinski said that he is waiting for Russia to take a decisive step in the ceasefire, and announced his willingness to meet Putin face to face in Istanbul next Thursday, calling on the Russians not to search for “excuses” to disrupt this meeting, which has never happened since the war began.
But his foreign minister Andre Sigga questioned the seriousness of the Russian side, suggesting that they “do not have the courage” for a direct dialogue, as he put it.
Press data
The scene has increased in the past few days in light of the visits by Germany, France, Britain and Poland leaders to Kiev, where they coordinated their positions with Washington on unified steps that include clear warnings to Moscow.
These leaders put forward the idea of sending forces from the “Alliance of those who wish” (or “the Alliance of Determination” as Ukraine calls it) that will be spread on the back lines of the fronts to provide air protection and vital installations, which is what French President Emmanuel Macron hinted, pointing to the possibility of sharing thousands of soldiers.
In parallel, Britain and Germany have pledged to send new batches of weapons and air defenses to Ukraine, while Washington hinted to provide military support that exceeded what was in the era of the previous administration, as US President Donald Trump said.
Western capitals also threatened Moscow with “unprecedented” economic sanctions that include the energy and banking sectors if the latter refuses to cease, and this escalation comes after the signing of the “rare mineral” agreement between Kiev and Washington, which was considered a strategic step that pushed the American position more towards Ukraine’s support.
Negotiating
Although Zelinski described the Russian call to negotiate as a “positive signal”, a wide segment of Ukrainians see a “familiar trick” aimed at winning time.
Speaking to Al -Jazeera Net, former political analyst and diplomat Folodimir Shomkov said, “We do not want formal negotiations used to beautify the image of Moscow, we have made a logical proposal for a long truce, but Russia wants absurd negotiation tours that it appears as a state seeking peace as its war continues, this is a dangerous dilemma that we should not fall into.”
Shomkov added that the Russian goal has not changed, which is to subjugate Ukraine and occupy the largest area of its territory, explaining that talking about Moscow’s concerns about Ukraine joining NATO is just an excuse, as there are several countries adjacent to Russia within the alliance “and Ukraine is not yet within it, and its way is still long.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-l_okgstoyo
Istanbul negotiations
Whether the new round of negotiations was held or not, talking about returning to the Istanbul track many questions, especially as Russia later included 4 Ukrainian provinces to its territory in September 2022.
In this context, political analyst Olexander Bali told Al -Jazeera Net that the call to return to the 2022 negotiations represents a “attempt to manipulate”, as Moscow modified its constitution and included the regions of Donetsk, Logansk, Zabarujia and Khairsson “and could not abandon it voluntarily.”
He added that “Russia seeks to win time and deplete us militarily and economically and weaken our relationship with the allies, that is, a return to negotiations without clear conditions that are in its interest.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4Dycc1usaa
Western conditions
Politicians and experts believe that the possibility of negotiating exists, but they warn against the exaggeration of its results.
Analyst Shomkov confirms that the “B” plan is ready if Russia refuses to a ceasefire or does not accept a wider international participation in the negotiations, and includes “sending European forces and imposing severe sanctions, as well as increasing Western military support as a quantity and quality.”
Shomkov also believes that “Washington is very disappointed by Putin’s intentions, especially after strengthening relations with Beijing, which was crowned in the presence of Chinese President Xi Jinping, the celebrations of the victory day in Moscow, this strengthened the Trump administration’s convergence with Kiev, and united the US -European position on the Ukrainian issue.”
To where?
While the world is awaiting the developments before “Khamis negotiations”, military observers exclude a fundamental change in the fronts, as each party is still far from achieving its field goals.
“The calm on the fronts is not currently possible, as the Russian forces are progressing slowly and at a high cost, and they have not yet been able to impose their full control on Donetsk, while controlling Zabarujia and Judson are further,” said Ivan Stopak, a military expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the future and former security advisor in the Ukrainian parliament.
On the other hand, he pointed out that “the Ukrainian forces are achieving gradual progress in some axes, such as Bokrovsk in Donetsk, which represents a major challenge for Moscow.”
Stopak added that “the next stage may witness a large-scale Ukraine escalation, especially after the resumption of American support with Patriot systems and the Atmani missiles, as well as Washington sending spare parts to” F-16 “aircraft, and this restores balance in our favor, and opens the door to accurate strikes in the Russian depth if it does not open fair negotiation channels.”
