According to the Institute for the Study of War, an American think tank, the Kremlin is concerned about the political impact of disaffection with the war as the 2024 presidential election approaches.
According to a recent survey, support for the war in Ukraine in Russia has never been lower.
The independent polling institute Chronicles found that the number of Russians who fully support the invasion has almost halved since February 2023.
The investigation reveals that supporters of peace are much more numerous than supporters of warand that more Russians support the departure of troops from Ukraine than oppose it.
The Institute for the Study of War (‘Institute for the Study of War‘) said on Friday that the Kremlin was “probably concerned” by the evolution of public opinion towards the war in the run-up to the 2024 Russian presidential election.
The US-based think tank predicts that Vladimir Putin will focus his re-election campaign on “Russia’s supposed internal stability and criticism of the West, instead of focusing on the war“.
It is always difficult to conduct polls in authoritarian states like Russia. Criticizing the war is now considered a criminal act there, and the Kremlin spends millions on pro-war propaganda, meaning polls may not reflect the reality of the situation.
Chroniclesfounded by Russian opposition figure Aleksei Miniailo, says its surveys provide accurate insight into public opinion.
The Moscow-based research group asked a series of questions to 1,199 adults across Russia in a telephone survey conducted between October 17 and 22.
It found that the number of war supporters – those who express “consistent” approval of the war and want the invasion to continue until it has achieved its objectives – fell by 22% in February 2023 at 12% in October.
The investigation of Chronicles revealed that 40% of Russians support the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine, even if it means abandoning the objectives of the war. This figure remained constant throughout 2023.
33% oppose Ukraine’s withdrawal and want the war to continue, although this figure has steadily declined from 47% in February to 39% in July.
This Russian disaffection for the war could be explained by the increasing pressure they feel, and their pessimism about the fallout from the invasionas another survey showed.
The survey carried out by Chronicles echoed this observation and revealed that 44% of those questioned saw their family income decline.
Vladimir Putin announced this week a significant increase in military spending; around 30% of the country’s budget will be spent on the armed forces in 2024.
The survey also showed the impact of the war on the lives of the population.
More than half of Russians (52%) have recently faced anxiety or depression, up from around a third (32%) in March 2022.
People with lower incomes are more likely to report negative mental effects.
