Financial Times: Changing the map of the Middle East is a major challenge for the West policy

A prominent researcher in international affairs warned the West against being complacent in dealing with the historical transformations in the Middle East region, stressing that this is a great danger.

Emile Hakayem, Director of Regional Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, based in the British capital, London, confirmed that the succession of developments that began in the region since October 7, 2023, was astonishing due to the combination of tragic and strategic events in it. It will take time to calm down, because what happened will have… Without a doubt, long-term repercussions.

He added, in his article in the British newspaper the Financial Times, that societies in the Arab Levant are “diverse and fragile” and are going through radical historical transformations, and are unlikely to receive help from abroad, given the hesitation of their countries and the lack of energy of the world alike.

The two-state solution

The process of reorganizing the region – according to the author – is accompanied by severe violence and renewed debates, as the Palestinians are suffering in an unprecedented way in the Gaza Strip at the hands of the Israeli army.

Hakayem claimed that the bet of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), which he describes as a failure, and the inability of its partners to help it, is a reminder that the only path to the establishment of a Palestinian state lies in internationalizing the issue and reaching a solution through negotiation.

The coalition for the two-state solution adopted by Arab and European countries has emerged as the most likely means to achieve that goal.

He continued, saying that the Palestinians must be convinced that the matter is more than just a symbolic diplomatic party, but they must prove that they are its owners, an outcome that will not be achieved except with the long-awaited reform of the Palestinian Authority.

The arrogance of the occupation

In parallel, the Israelis went from severe shock – referring to the attack of October 7, 2023 – to “military victory” in just one year, as the author of the article claims.

In his opinion, this has reinforced the belief that Israel can only rely on its military strength and that expansion into Gaza, the occupied West Bank and now southern Syria is not only justified but required.

He added that the unconditional support that Israel receives from the United States and many European countries allowed it to ignore the need to reach a just peace that would provide security for all.

But Israel’s security-only mentality will have dire consequences. In Hakim’s view, it is costly, increases dependence on the United States, and alienates current and potential partners in the neighborhood, who fear that Israel will expand the scope of the conflict by striking Iran’s leadership and its nuclear facilities.

loss

He pointed out that Israel’s loss of reputation as a result of its war on Gaza is enormous, and entails legal obligations, but the situation of the Lebanese is different, as Hezbollah must take into account the collapse of its military strategy, the fall of its ideological narrative, and the collapse of its credibility, as the writer put it.

As for the Syrians, they are tasting freedom for the first time in decades, says Hakayem, who attributes the rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime to his corruption. He praised the new administration in Damascus for showing restraint and some wisdom.

However, he believes that establishing peace requires great feats of nobility, magnanimity, and dedication to establishing an inclusive rule despite the presence of saboteurs at home and abroad.

Strategic changes

He explained that in order to reach reconciliation between Arabs and Kurds, this requires “moderation and moderation” on the part of Türkiye, and diplomacy on the part of the United States, considering this vital.

He said that the Gulf countries can help neutralize the influence of Iran, which he considers the biggest loser in what is happening.

He concluded that many in Western capitals will find solace in the fact that these historical transformations have so far been surprisingly contained.