Despite the policy of buying time practiced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since the beginning of the war, the power transfer process in the United States may lead to a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, in the opinion of experts.
The Al-Qassam Brigades – the military wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) – tried, through the video it published of the Israeli-American prisoner Idan Alexander, to convey a message to US President-elect Donald Trump that the solution in Gaza will only be through the prisoners’ gate, as political analyst Saeed says. Ziad.
During his participation in the analytical pause “The Course of Events,” Ziad said that the resistance also tried, through this prisoner’s letter, to confirm its ability to keep prisoners in the midst of war and that they would not leave the Gaza Strip alive except with a deal.
The prisoner’s new message – in the opinion of expert on Israeli affairs Ihab Jabareen – represents “a movement into the prisoner exchange file, which has remained stagnant for the past two months due to the war in Lebanon, because it will move the Israeli street against Netanyahu, because the families of the prisoners have come to believe that the agreement that occurred in Lebanon can be repeated in the future.” Gaza.
Obstacles to an agreement
But Jabareen says that there are obstacles to repeating the Lebanon scenario in Gaza, the first of which is that Israeli national security concepts differ in the north from the south, and the second is that reaching a deal in Gaza as an extension of the Lebanon deal undermines the idea of separating the arenas that Netanyahu spoke about and considered it one of the achievements of his war against Hezbollah. .
In addition, even if Netanyahu did not achieve absolute victory in Gaza, he is trying to obtain absolute control over the Strip after the war, and therefore his talk about seeking an exchange deal may not go beyond being a palliative for the Israeli street, from Jabareen’s point of view.
On the other hand, former US State Department official Thomas Work says that there is a possibility of holding a discussion that was impossible two weeks ago, noting that changes occurred after the ceasefire in Lebanon.
Work pointed out that the United States believes that Hamas has accepted some of the things it previously rejected, including the presence of Israeli forces in the Philadelphia axis, which means that some major obstacles have been dismantled at the present moment.
More importantly, in Work’s opinion, “Netanyahu did not get the white paper he thought he would get from Trump that made him actually ready to accept a deal in Gaza.”
The spokesman said that the serious disagreement currently is over what the form of the government will be on the day after the war, because both parties have a different view on this matter, indicating that Netanyahu wants Palestinian rule away from Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, while Hamas does not want to leave the scene.
Hamas is looking for a solution
But Ziad responded to these words by saying that the United States’ estimates regarding Hamas’ acceptance of the occupation forces remaining in Philadelphia “are wrong and a failure and reflect the United States’ lack of understanding of the Palestinian resistance, which cannot accept the occupation remaining in this axis.”
Regarding Hamas’ position on governance after the war, Ziad said that Hamas is not concerned with governance, but rather with this governance being Palestinian, noting that it is “conducting negotiations in Cairo now in order to cut off the talk of those who are trying to shape the day after the war by making it purely national, even if it is not.” She is participating in it.”
Ziad concluded by saying that Hamas “is trying to solve the Palestinian issue and unify the scene inside Gaza, and it is also waiting for a change in the American and Israeli governments because it often leads to deals, as happened in previous times.”
Contrary to the two previous opinions, Jabareen believes that Israel is trying to impose a completely new reality in Gaza, politically, geographically, and demographically, by remaining in the Netzarim and Philadelphia axes and the northern Gaza Strip, noting that Netanyahu “may withdraw in exchange for creating an international committee to manage the Gaza Strip according to his standards, which will lead to the conquest of the East.” The middle one is in front of him.”
However, Work believes that Trump is currently pressing towards reaching a deal that will make him able to continue working on expanding the “Abraham Accords” once he enters the White House.
He concluded by saying that officials in the Joe Biden administration are communicating with the Trump group and with the leaders of Israel and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in what can be described as a “dance of chairs,” expressing his belief that reaching a solution in Gaza is possible at the present time.
