The mother of the longest-serving Palestinian prisoner in Israeli jails is gripped by anxiety, but for once, she is also optimistic.
The mother of another prisoner arrested just months after his 18th birthday is baking chocolate cakes and other pastries in anticipation of his release.
In Israel, a grandfather wonders if his three-year-old granddaughter will be freed, the little one among six other family members held captive by Hamas.
For his part, a developmental psychologist from Tel Aviv is concerned about post-traumatic signs in children upon their return from Gaza.
At 7:00 a.m. local time (05:00 GMT) on Friday morning, the truce between Israel and Hamas came into effect, marking the first pause in Israel’s seven-week continuous bombardment of the Gaza Strip following Hamas’ attack on the south from Israel on October 7.
The four-day break is expected to see the exchange of 150 Palestinian women and children imprisoned in Israeli prisons for 50 women and children held hostage by Hamas. It is also an opportunity for aid to be delivered to the battered enclave where nearly 15,000 people were killed in the bombings, including more than 6,000 children.
Israeli officials, while adamant that the truce does not end the war, also agreed to suspend fighting for an additional day for every 10 additional captives released by Hamas.
As the truce is the first step towards a cessation of hostilities after weeks of fighting, several scenarios are possible now that it has come into force.
Here’s a look at some of them:
The truce holds
First, the truce could very well hold, the agreement respected by both sides.
As prisoners and captives are exchanged, humanitarian aid could enter not only southern Gaza, as it has in recent weeks, but also northern Gaza, where Israeli forces are carrying out a ground attack , said Aboud Hamayel, professor at Birzeit University. in the occupied West Bank.
But while humanitarian aid will be welcome, the truce will also raise the question of what to do with northern Gaza, since it has been largely emptied of Palestinians, said Sami Hamdi, director general of International Interest, a political risk firm specializing in the Middle East.
“Increasingly louder voices will demand that these Palestinian families be allowed to return to northern Gaza in order to reverse the Israeli attempt at ethnic cleansing,” Hamdi told Tel Aviv Tribune.
Even so, the pause in fighting would be a lifeline for many Palestinians, an opportunity for them to recover and “pull people out of the rubble,” Hamayel told Tel Aviv Tribune.
In Israel, the return of the captives could be a small public relations victory for embattled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has faced increasing pressure from their families since their capture, the analyst said.
But it was international pressure, in addition to that from families, that forced the Israeli leader to accept the truce after weeks of refusing similar agreements, Hamdi said.
International pressure will therefore be key to ensuring that both sides respect the truce, Hamayel agreed, with Western actors particularly interested in maintaining regional stability so that the oil economy does not become too volatile.
The truce is extended
If international pressure succeeds, or if Hamas agrees to release more of the 237 prisoners currently held, it could be possible that the truce not only lasts, but lasts beyond the initial four days, up to around three weeks.
Both sides could use the longer lull in fighting to recover, reorganize their troops and gather intelligence for the next phase of the war, Hamayel said.
Israel could also use the break to explore Hamas tunnels, something it has not yet done but has hinted it will do.
Israel, while indicating it has no intention of ending the war, might also prefer a longer pause as the war depletes its economy and affects its tourism, Hamayel said.
In the meantime, it could step up its raids in the occupied West Bank as the Gaza front cools, the analyst said. More than 226 people have been killed and more than 2,750 injured in the West Bank since October 7.
The truce is broken
The opposite scenario to the previous two is that of a breakdown of the truce, with Israel having more incentive to break it than Hamas, analysts said.
Hamas does not want to lose credibility with its mediators, while the situation for Palestinian civilians is too dire for the group to risk not granting them a respite from the fighting, Hamayel said.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu has failed to achieve any of the strategic objectives he claimed to seek when he began his military operations and which require him to continue fighting, Hamdi said.
“He failed to kill senior Hamas officials. He failed to eliminate Hamas in Gaza,” Hamdi said.
But Hamas and its regional allies would not take Israel’s breakdown of the truce lightly, with the Palestinian armed group expecting to fire missiles at Israel in response, and the possibility of a gradual escalation of tensions on several fronts. of the war, Hamayel said.
It is also possible that Hamas could break the truce, with such a response provoking not only Western anger at the group but also an intensification of Israeli aggression, both from the air and on the ground, he added.
Its regional allies will continue to err on the side of caution and seek to pursue a de-escalation of the conflict, Hamdi said.
A path to end the war?
Meanwhile, Israeli officials, including Netanyahu’s allies, are concerned that “this hostage exchange is essentially an attempt to pressure Israel into a permanent ceasefire,” Hamdi said.
As a result, the Prime Minister assured that military operations would continue, he added. On Thursday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the war would continue for at least two more months after the truce ends.
But international pressure for a ceasefire is increasing. That was the majority view at a summit earlier this week of the BRICS group, the world’s most powerful bloc of emerging economies. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also called for a humanitarian ceasefire.
The truce opened the possibility of more diplomatic engagements and solutions to eventually end a bloody and bitter conflict that has gripped the world, Hamayel said.
