10/8/2024–|Last updated: 10/8/202402:37 PM (Mecca time)
The political analyst for the Israeli newspaper Maariv, Ran Adelist, considered that Israel is acting as a contractor for the United States, and that Israeli moves are subject to American calculations and interests that go beyond the political will in Tel Aviv.
Adelist said that the Israeli escalation is part of an American plan to weaken Hezbollah and Iran and create regional arrangements that serve the interests of Washington and the current administration in the elections, warning at the same time that extremists in the Israeli government may cause this plan to be spoiled.
He considered that Israel is nothing but a stick led by US President Joe Biden, explaining that the United States does not want an escalation that would lead to negative repercussions on the upcoming presidential elections.
However, he confirms that American political circles realize that targeting Iran and Hezbollah serves their interests, but he alludes to fears of rising waves of global popular sympathy if a comprehensive escalation occurs in the region.
One interest
He said, “The global and instinctive strategic interest of the United States, like the interest of the Israeli army, the Israeli government and much of the Israeli public, says: Kill them all, but the White House knows that a multi-front war that includes Iran during the elections could be an electoral disaster.”
He added, “When the Israeli army kills the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, it certainly suits American interests. What does not suit them is that it looks like a wholesale massacre.”
He also said that neither President Biden nor French President Emmanuel Macron have any problem with the Israeli army’s ground incursion into Lebanon, stressing that weakening Hezbollah will weaken its relations with Iran and will be another card in the indirect negotiations for a new Middle Eastern arrangement on the US axis.
However, the Israeli analyst criticizes the Israeli dependence on American policy, pointing to the visit of the Commander of Central Command, General Michael Corella, to Israel and his demands that seem to dictate to the Israeli government what it should do in its upcoming attack on Iran.
The writer wonders, “Did Netanyahu surrender to American demands?” This is a clear indication that the Israeli government’s actions are subject to American demands.
Israel’s predicament and Washington’s fear
In the context of the escalation between Israel and Iran, he said that the Iranians are maintaining the rules of the game, and so far the Israeli army has not deviated from them, “despite Netanyahu’s boastful statements.”
Adelist highlighted the reality of the US administration’s position and stressed that it is avoiding full escalation with Iran because it fears the potential electoral consequences if a comprehensive confrontation occurs, especially since “a multi-front war that includes Iran during the elections could be an electoral disaster.”
He highlights Biden’s keenness to avoid any damage to Iran’s oil or nuclear infrastructure, given the repercussions of this on global oil prices, saying: “It is clear why Biden demands that nuclear weapons or Iranian oil facilities not be harmed.”
The Israeli analyst pointed out that Israel may find itself embroiled in a Lebanese quagmire, if it decides to continue the escalation with Hezbollah. He also expressed his concern about the size of the potential losses in this battle, noting that “a terrifying number may reach a thousand dead soldiers.” It will be a natural result of this confrontation, which may greatly affect Israeli popular support for this battle.
He believes that the Netanyahu government, under the influence of extremist ministers such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, may take escalatory decisions that are outside the framework of American control and desire, and he adds, “What was is what will be,” indicating that the extremism of the Netanyahu government will impose the same usual escalatory pattern, It will raise disputes again with the American administration.
He concludes his article by warning that this “crazy government” may lead Israel to a dangerous and uncalculated escalation, which could destroy the complex American arrangements in the Middle East.
