Israelis have nicknamed October 7 “Black Shabbat.” Since the Hamas attack in 2023, events in the Middle East have spiraled out of control. Israel is now waging a seven-front war that threatens to overwhelm the Middle East.
After the brutal incursion of Hamas militants into Israel on October 7, the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considerably strengthened its military response.
The scale of Hamas’ surprise attack, the number of people killed and kidnapped, was unprecedented and, within hours, showed Israelis how vulnerable their country could be.
The Israeli military response was immediate and the government outlined a series of main goals, the most immediate of which was the total elimination of Hamas in Gaza, a militant group that Israel considers a threat to its very existence.
Another goal was to free Israeli hostages from Gaza. During the Israeli incursion, Hamas captured around 250 people, men, women and children, and took them to Gaza.
But a year later, has Israel achieved any of its operational, strategic and political objectives?
The corridors of power
A year later, the Israeli army continues to fight in Gaza, suffering casualties almost every day, while thousands of Palestinian civilians, including women and children, have been killed.
On May 30, the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) took control of the Philadelphia Corridor, a 14-kilometer strip of land that extends from the Mediterranean Sea to Israel and runs along the Egyptian border.
According to Israel, control of this line of territory is essential to suffocate Hamas by cutting its arms supply lines entering Gaza through the Rafah border postin Egypt.
But Israel’s takeover of the corridor has sparked concern in the United States and some European countries. They are concerned about the presence of the IDF in the region, which constitutes a violation of the 1978 Camp David Accords, concluded under the auspices of the United States, which established peace between Israel and Egypt.
Egypt, Qatar and other Arab states that diplomatically recognize Israel have asked it to withdraw its troops.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Ahmed Mohamed Abdelatty accused Israel of “to use famine as a weapon to force people to abandon Gaza“.”Israel seized the Rafah crossing to prevent international organizations from delivering humanitarian aid, leaving Gaza residents without sufficient food and medicine” he said.
But Israel maintains a constant military presence along the Philadelphia Corridor and the Netzarim corridorthe occupation zone set up by the IDF which divides Gaza in two, and this is one of its conditions for a lasting ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.
Fight Hezbollah
Lebanese Hezbollah, ideologically aligned with Hamas, also demanded that Israel withdraw from the area near the Rafah border crossing. In return, it would put an end to the almost daily exchanges of fire with Israeli forces in the north. This proposal was rejected.
The Philadelphia Corridor issue is the strategic bridge that connects the war in Gaza to the escalating conflict in Lebanon.
12 months after the start of the war in Gaza, a new front has opened, along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, where the country is now engaged in a conflict with Hezbollah. Since last October, Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged cross-border fire almost daily, but in recent weeks hostilities have escalated.
ADVERTISEMENTCross-border shooting intensified, and on September 30, Israel launched what it called a targeted ground offensive on Lebanese territory in order to uproot and eliminate Hezbollah fighters and positions.
Objectives not achieved
More than 600 members of the Israeli security forces have lost their lives in the urban war in Gaza. According to the Hamas health ministry, more than 41,000 Palestinians have been killed.
But the ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.
In one year of war, the Gaza Strip has been decimated. Entire parts of the territory are nothing but piles of rubble and the people who still live there are threatened by famine and disease.
ADVERTISEMENTAnd yet, the goal of eradicating Hamas is still far from being achieved. According to Israeli figures, 117 hostages were freed, but most of them were exchanged for Palestinian prisoners as part of a temporary truce in November, and were not released following military operations of the IDF.
What happened on October 7, 2023?
On October 7, 2023, at 6:30 a.m. Israel time, Hamas launched what it called Operation Al Aqsa Flood against Israel.
Nearly 6,000 rockets were launched from Gaza at Israeli targets, at populated areas around the Gaza Strip and at major cities like Tel Aviv and Ashkelon.
This unexpected attack, carried out by a conglomeration of various Palestinian armed groups coordinated by Hamas, killed more than 1,200 Israelis, the majority of whom were civilians.
ADVERTISEMENT6,000 armed Palestinians crossed the borders of Gaza and stormed villages and settlements in Israel after crushing the few Israeli military units present in the region.
The armed men attacked by land, with pickup trucks and motorcycles, by sea, with speedboats, and by air, with paragliders.
Among the first victims were participants in an open-air music festival near Kibbutz Re’im.
During the incursion, Hamas and its allies committed dozens of crimes, including sexual assaults, against Israeli civilians, including children.
ADVERTISEMENTIt was the first invasion of Israeli territory since 1948, the year the country was founded, and the lightning attacks surprised Israel and the entire world.
The sophisticated mix of guerrilla tactics, commando military operations and hybrid warfare has caught Israeli security off guard.
Such an operation requires training and preparation with visible exercises and some military analysts around the world were baffled that Israeli intelligence did not know that Hamas was training for a military operation.
Additionally, the Israeli Defense Forces’ response was far from rapid or coordinated, adding chaos to the panic.
ADVERTISEMENTBenjamin Netanyahu’s government has come under heavy criticism from the Israeli public for what they have called ineffective management of national security.
The military response
The brutality of the assassinations and the number of hostages taken could only have had a military response.
Mr. Netanyahu’s government had to respond forcefully and strike hard and deep into the Gaza Strip, especially since the incursion had an international dimension since Hamas receives support and funding from Israel’s archenemy , Iran.
The Israeli cabinet ordered a military response the same day, launching the operation “Iron swords“. This began with air operations, paving the way for a massive ground assault on October 27.
ADVERTISEMENTIsraeli military authorities have asked more than a million Palestinians to leave Gaza. But with nowhere to go after the border with Egypt closed, they had no choice but to stay.
On May 20, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court launched a procedure to issue arrest warrants against the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defense minister, Yoav Gallant.
The Court also announced the prosecution of Hamas figures Yahya Sinwar, Mohamed Deif and Ismail Haniyeh.
On July 31, Haniyeh was killed in an Israeli strike in the Iranian capital, Tehran.
ADVERTISEMENTOn the diplomatic front, voices in favor of the creation of a Palestinian state are growing louder. Although the two-state solution was ruled out by the reality on the ground and Benjamin Netanyahu ruled it out altogether, in May Ireland, Spain and Norway officially recognized Palestine as an independent state .
They were followed later in the month by Slovenia. This approach was supported by the President of the Council of the EU, Charles Michel.
Will the West Bank become the new Gaza?
At the end of September, the Israeli Defense Forces intensified their operations in the West Bank, as part of their anti-Hamas mission.
Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other secular Palestinian militant movements have expanded their guerrilla networks in an attempt to destabilize the West Bank, ostensibly controlled by the Palestinian Authority but in reality largely occupied and administered by Israel.
ADVERTISEMENTThe West Bank is also under pressure from Israeli settlers who are trying to establish new settlements there with the support of far-right political parties that are members of the government coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu.
These settlements are illegal under international law and have been widely condemned by the international community.
The West Bank is also a tinderbox in the making that could explode at any moment.
