Analysts: Allenby operation exposed hidden tension between Jordan and Israel | Politics

Aljazeera.net correspondents

Occupied Jerusalem Israeli analysts and research centers agreed that the operation carried out by a Jordanian truck driver at the Karameh (Allenby) border crossing with Jordan, which resulted in the killing of 3 settlers from the security forces at the crossing, was “only a matter of time.”

Israeli estimates attributed this operation to the escalation of security tensions in the West Bank, the continuation of the war on Gaza, and the absence of any horizon for a truce, with protests continuing near the Israeli embassy in the Jordanian capital, Amman.

While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refrained from criticizing Jordan, he was quick to accuse Iran of seeking to use Jordanian territory to smuggle weapons and money to the Palestinian resistance in the West Bank, while some analyses criticized the Jordanian government and the royal palace.

The Israeli readings justified their criticism of the office of King Abdullah II, as it placed at the top of its priorities the provision of relief aid to the displaced in the Gaza Strip, at the expense of security coordination between the two sides regarding the border areas, which coordination reached its lowest levels due to the Israeli government’s rejection of the exchange deal and the ceasefire.

Decline in cooperation

These analysts’ estimates come amid concerns from the Israeli security establishment that the stability of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan could be endangered, and that this could lead to the creation of a situation in which Iran and its agents are stationed on the Israeli-Jordanian border.

Because of these concerns, Netanyahu’s government avoided a public confrontation with the Jordanian side, despite Jordan’s sharp criticism of Israel over the war on the Gaza Strip, out of consideration from Tel Aviv for the existential needs of the kingdom and its national security, and responding to them through secret communication channels.

Yedioth Ahronoth’s Arab and Middle Eastern affairs editor, Smadar Perry, estimated that the armed operation at the Karameh crossing was the result of a decline in coordination and cooperation between the two countries in all matters related to security aspects in the border areas, due to the ongoing war on Gaza.

According to the Israeli writer, the armed operation constitutes a failure for the Jordanian security services, noting that the Israeli and Jordanian sides have worked – each from its position – since the start of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle on October 7, 2023 and the outbreak of the war on Gaza, to prevent armed operations and thwart any arms smuggling operations at the crossing.

Perry says that for several months the Israeli side has been trying to pressure the Jordanians to establish a closed border at the crossing, like the cargo terminal at the Kerem Shalom crossing adjacent to the Gaza Strip. The Jordanians announced that they were interested in this, “but they practically did not move forward with this step, while pressure continued in Israel, but without a response, as it was decided to withdraw the request to close the goods crossing.”

Since the beginning of the war on Gaza, security cooperation between the two sides has become routine behavior, without exchanging many briefings and updates, according to Perry. She adds, “Immediately at the time of the attack, Queen Rania spoke at a conference in Italy and again placed the main blame for the war in Gaza on Israel.”

Shared responsibility

From a military point of view, Udi Etzion, the military correspondent for the Walla website, believes that the armed operation at the crossing “broke the barrier of calm that had prevailed in the area for 30 years,” and attributed the implementation of the operation to the tense security escalation in the West Bank, the ongoing war on Gaza, and the Israeli refusal to stop the fighting and withdraw from the Strip.

He explained that the crossing in the Jordan Valley is under the joint responsibility of Israel and Jordan, and that about 100,000 trucks and more than 3 million passengers pass through it every year. Following the official Israeli level, the military correspondent avoided directing direct accusations at Amman and holding it responsible for what happened, adding: “The Jordanians were able to maintain the crossing as an isolated island for economic and civilian activity, until the war on Gaza.”

Etzion hinted that the armed operation comes against the backdrop of tension and coldness in relations between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and King Abdullah II, due to the ongoing Israeli war on Gaza, saying that “the ability to ensure that a Jordanian driver does not reach the crossing armed depends on the efforts of the Jordanian security forces, and the effort invested by King Abdullah’s administration in this regard.”

He added that this armed attack comes in the wake of “increased hostile activity” along the long border with Jordan over the past year, “which was manifested in increased arms smuggling and the entry of militants along the border into the Jordan Valley region, amid efforts by Hamas and Iran to ignite the West Bank front,” according to his estimates.

undermining stability

On the strategic side, Orit Perlov, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, suggested a scenario that would increase security tensions on both sides of the border in the Jordan Valley region, if the war on Gaza continues and the intensity of demonstrations and protests in front of the Israeli embassy in Amman escalates.

In her assessment of the situation, Perloff wondered whether what she described as “evil” would develop from the East? This is against the backdrop of the ongoing war on Gaza, noting that the return of protests against Israel in the capital, Amman, could threaten to undermine internal stability in Jordan, “a development that would have dire consequences for Israel’s security.”

The Israeli researcher explained that after about 30 years have passed since the signing of the peace agreement between the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and Israel, the Jordanian public remains steadfast in its opposition to the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and to peace and normalization with Israel.

She concluded by saying, “Israel must respond positively to Jordanian initiatives to increase humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, and understand the existential needs of the Kingdom of Jordan.”