The National Rally is set to become the leading political force in the National Assembly according to the latest projections. However, it would not obtain an absolute majority.
Trends that are confirmed but projections to be taken with great caution. 48 hours before the second round of the legislative elections, the National Rally is in a position to become the leading political force in the Palais Bourbon according to IFOP polls for Euronews.
But it would not obtain an absolute majority, as Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen hope. The far-right party would thus win between 210 and 240 seats in the National Assembly – far from the 289 needed to be able to pass all its bills.
“Either the National Rally obtains an absolute majority and I can immediately launch the recovery project that I am defending, prioritizing purchasing power, security and immigration, or the country is blocked” Jordan Bardella said during the debate with Gabriel Attal on France 2 on Thursday July 4.
The New Popular Front is expected to win between 170 and 200 seats. The presidential camp Ensemble would come in third, with 95 to 125 deputies, according to the polls.
Traditionally, French parties without a majority suggest to their voters to support the political forces likely to obtain the best result in a given constituency in the second round. However, party leaders have limited power of persuasion over their respective voters.
“We want to avoid the National Rally having an absolute majority, which, in a handful of constituencies, would lead to the withdrawal of our candidates.” repeated the outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal during the debate on France 2.
“The French do not follow voting instructions. A citizen will vote according to his conscience”he added. “I just highlighted the risk of a far-right majority and detailed what is dangerous in their program, and I concluded by saying: not a single vote for the far right. But after that, the French do what they want.”
THE “Republican Front”a political barrier against the extreme right that extends from moderate conservatives and centrists to the moderate left and the extreme left, has adopted an electoral strategy based on the withdrawal of the weakest candidates in favor of the strongest candidate of the extreme right in the different constituencies.
According to the latest figures from the French Interior Ministry, a total of 215 candidates have withdrawn so far.
If these predictions are confirmed on Sunday evening, it will be difficult for French MPs to form a government due to the lack of a clear majority.