Washington- US President Joe Biden began his rule in 2021, trying to direct America’s strategic focus to confront the escalating Chinese challenge economically, militarily, and intellectually. Instead, Biden began his final year in office involved in the wars in Ukraine, which began in February 2022, and in Gaza, on the seventh of last October.
While the Biden administration’s National Security Strategy, issued in October 2022, stressed the need to focus in 2023 on strategic competition with China by building a huge network of alliances, Washington begins 2024 involved in two conflicts that threaten it with losing its credibility on the global stage.
As the two wars enter the year 2024 in the absence of any prospect of their ending soon, Biden is placing his foreign policy agenda under the supervision of American voters who will cast their ballots next November, at a time when most opinion polls indicate that he is lagging behind his rival, former President Donald Trump.
By the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, the United States may no longer be able to continue supporting the Ukrainian military effort against Russia.
Failed visit
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky left Washington two weeks ago after a failed visit without any promises of more new American aid, after Republicans in the House of Representatives linked the project to provide more than $60 billion in aid to Kiev to the southern US border crisis with Mexico.
Despite the huge American and Western aid amounting to more than $100 billion during 2023, its counterattack – which was much promoted – ended in great disappointment after Russia repelled it, and the Ukrainian army did not succeed in regaining the territory controlled by Moscow, which is estimated at a fifth of Ukrainian territory.
If Kiev receives a large boost of US aid in 2024, as President Biden hopes, it may still have to consolidate its power and absorb the relentless Russian attacks.
If the question that arises in Washington at the beginning of 2023 is related to the amount of land that Ukraine can liberate, the question at the beginning of 2024 in Washington will be related to Kiev’s ability to withstand.
With the continued massive American military, political, diplomatic, financial and intelligence support for the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, the Joe Biden administration hopes that Tel Aviv will be able to end the most intense phase of its war on the Strip by the end of next January. But Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi announced a few days ago that the fighting could continue for months.
Credibility costs
The Biden administration is calling, to no avail so far, on the Israeli government to change the nature of its operations to adopt the approach of limited and surgical operations against the leaders of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), away from the widespread attacks that cause hundreds of civilian casualties every day.
Many commentators in Washington realize that ending the conflict and stopping the fighting is the key to reducing the diplomatic costs that the United States pays for its credibility, due to supporting the Israeli aggression, which resulted in the martyrdom of more than 20,000 Palestinians, the wounding of more than 50,000 others, and the complete destruction of infrastructure and life in the Strip. perfect.
Biden is betting that the end of the war will allow him to regain momentum towards facilitating the process of normalizing relations between Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which may support his electoral chances after losing the votes of large segments of Democrats due to his position in support of the Israeli aggression.
On the other hand, the risk of the war expanding regionally during 2024 represents a major nightmare for the Biden administration, especially with the aggression against Gaza sparking violent and escalatory pressure on 4 fronts: the West Bank, the Israeli-Lebanese border, the southern Red Sea, and the areas where US forces are present in Iraq and Syria.
Internally, the shock of the progressive movement in the Democratic Party’s rejection of Biden’s position and policies towards the Israeli aggression represented a shocking surprise to the White House, and the anger of American Muslim voters over Biden’s approach may cost him the 2024 elections.
Even with the focus on the Middle East and Russia’s war on Ukraine, the White House and Pentagon are watching China closely. The second week of 2024 will witness important presidential elections in Taiwan, and many of the positions of the parties to the Taiwanese dilemma are not expected to change, whether inside Taiwan, in Beijing, or in Washington.
Bad record
During 2023, Chinese-American relations experienced great tension following the discovery of a Chinese spy balloon over American territory until it was shot down. Biden also worked to demonstrate America’s commitment to the countries of the Indo-Pacific region.
His meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, at the IPIC summit in San Francisco last November, represented a diplomatic breakthrough, which contributed to the return of communications between the military in both countries after stopping for more than a year.
If 2023 represents a bad record for President Joe Biden, then 2024 is expected to be more turbulent, especially because of the way unstable American politics may interact with global issues.
If the international environment portends difficult times in 2024 for Biden externally, the weakest link remains represented by what the United States itself will witness in light of fateful elections that may bring Trump as president for the second time, despite him facing a complex series of accusations and trials.
Trump’s victory means doubling fears that he may lead to damage to American democracy and disruption to the global order, especially if he repeats his ongoing attacks on NATO or his rejection of climate change, and his promises to use tariffs to protect American products.
From here, the year 2024 will test the strength and capabilities of President Biden, and the end of the year 2024 will tell us whether Biden can confront external enemies and internal competitors.